Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

29 smart money signals detected, totaling $126,293.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A high-volume geopolitical market is seeing a 22x activity spike while a serial trader adds $3,039 to an existing No position.

  • This serial cross-market trader has 499 resolved bets and is adding $3,039 to No after already investing $15,497.
  • Trading activity is running 22.1x above its historical average, while No has gained roughly 19% over the past day.
  • The new entry was 42¢, below the current 44¢ No price, suggesting continued conviction despite the move.

$3,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

93% win-rate bettor adds to No

A highly successful serial trader is adding $3,828 to an existing No position despite strong recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 101 resolved trades and is up $81,196 lifetime.
  • They are adding $3,828 to an existing No position, bringing total investment on No to about $19,000.
  • No is priced at 34¢ after Yes rose 61% over the past week, indicating a contrarian view against recent momentum.

$2,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Serial 92% winner adds to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
  • They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
  • The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.

$4,679 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

93% win-rate bettor adds to No

A highly successful serial trader is adding $3,828 to an existing No position despite strong recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 101 resolved trades and is up $81,196 lifetime.
  • They are adding $3,828 to an existing No position, bringing total investment on No to about $19,000.
  • No is priced at 34¢ after Yes rose 61% over the past week, indicating a contrarian view against recent momentum.

$3,828 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Funded wallets scale into Yes

A linked-wallet purchase and 29.5x volume spike support fresh bullish positioning, though the trader is adding to an existing position and lacks a strong historical edge.

  • Two wallets sharing a funder committed nearly $28,000 to Yes, including a $23,208 purchase.
  • The market saw a 29.5x historical volume spike while Yes surged to 81%.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, but its 61% win rate is not clearly superior to its typical 85¢ entries.

$13,068 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Funded wallets scale into Yes

A linked-wallet purchase and 29.5x volume spike support fresh bullish positioning, though the trader is adding to an existing position and lacks a strong historical edge.

  • Two wallets sharing a funder committed nearly $28,000 to Yes, including a $23,208 purchase.
  • The market saw a 29.5x historical volume spike while Yes surged to 81%.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, but its 61% win rate is not clearly superior to its typical 85¢ entries.

$6,176 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Serial 92% winner adds to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
  • They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
  • The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.

$1,608 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Serial 92% winner adds to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
  • They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
  • The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.

$1,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Serial 92% winner adds to No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a large No position, though the trade offers only modest apparent price edge.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 188 resolved trades and is up $61,574 lifetime.
  • They are scaling an existing No position after trading eight markets in this event, with $195,601 committed across them.
  • The $4,223 addition is meaningful relative to the alert window, but No is already priced at 89¢, leaving limited apparent mispricing.

$2,265 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

90% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position despite a sharp move toward Yes.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 133 resolved trades and is up $192,192 lifetime.
  • They added $1,538 to No despite Yes rising 59% in one day, increasing an existing $11,826 No position.
  • The wallet is active across 50 events and recently traded three markets tied to this event, signaling a broader thesis.

$3,468 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x12d5...f0eb — No, $58,825 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xb225...d4a1 — No, $40,532
  3. 0x8833...2393 — No, $16,784 (82% win rate)
  4. 0x3938...299e — No, $16,460
  5. 0x13e6...5354 — No, $11,329
  6. 0xbf96...9942 — No, $10,483 (80% win rate)
  7. 0x8a8b...375c — No, $9,417 (42% win rate)
  8. 0xf67c...0d14 — No, $9,255 (88% win rate)
  9. 0x7b57...6ba9 — No, $8,701
  10. 0xe743...e7d7 — No, $8,233 (94% win rate)

Related Theses

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Israel airspace closure begins in September

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

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Ceasefire holds through September

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Israel will keep airspace open

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Ceasefire comes in early August

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Iran ceasefire will hold

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Fed will raise rates

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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Israel closes its airspace by...?$126,293 tracked29 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 20:21 UTC

$3,039 on No at 42¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 12:00 UTC

$2,568 on No at 34¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 02:58 UTC

$4,679 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 02:58 UTC

$3,828 on No at 34¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 02:58 UTC

$13,068 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-06 04:03 UTC

$6,176 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 21:50 UTC

$1,608 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 21:07 UTC

$1,003 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 16:37 UTC

$2,265 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 09:42 UTC

$3,468 on No at 32¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 07:48 UTC

$1,239 on No at 32¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 07:17 UTC

$1,396 on No at 32¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 07:00 UTC

$6,560 on No at 36¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 06:49 UTC

$4,040 on No at 36¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 06:45 UTC

$1,538 on No at 32¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 04:02 UTC

$1,706 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-05 02:12 UTC

$23,208 on Yes at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 21:41 UTC

$5,245 on Yes at 70¢

70¢→100¢↑30¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 21:00 UTC

$1,236 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 20:42 UTC

$1,000 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 20:01 UTC

$2,190 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-07 21:32 UTC

$6,115 on No at 19¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 19:26 UTC

$2,000 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 19:26 UTC

$5,425 on No at 54¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 19:15 UTC

$1,440 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-04 19:06 UTC

$2,550 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-03 21:49 UTC

$8,847 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-03 12:38 UTC

$4,632 on No at 89¢

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

2026-09-03 11:37 UTC

$4,223 on No at 89¢

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