Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,052.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

85% winner leads No cluster

A highly profitable 85% lifetime winner led a 3-wallet $10.3k No buy cluster amid a 99x volume spike on a geopolitics market.

The lead bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $1.4M lifetime.
Three wallets bought $10.3k of No at 86–88¢ as market volume spiked 99x above normal.
Two bettors have strong cross-market histories, including one with 114 events and an 85% win rate.

$10,305 on No

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying a long-shot Yes in a geopolitical market, with linked-wallet context and meaningful size versus recent volume.