Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,938.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought a long-shot Yes at 5¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $786K lifetime.
- They have traded across 178 markets and 62 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- Entry at 5¢ is a long-shot position with large upside if the withdrawal announcement happens.
$2,019 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
New wallet scaling fast
A 4-day-old wallet has now triggered 13 large-bet alerts totaling about $55k, adding a small Yes position in a liquid geopolitics market despite no resolved track record yet.
- This wallet is only 4 days old but has already placed 13 flagged bets totaling about $55k.
- The bet is on the long-shot Yes side at 8¢, implying a high-upside view on withdrawal odds.
- No resolved track record yet, so the signal is conviction from a fresh, active wallet rather than proven skill.
$1,000 on Yes
Profitable sharp buying long-shot
Surfaced despite a weak alert because the wallet has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the trade copy-worthy.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
- They bought the long-shot side at 8¢, implying a high-upside bet if the withdrawal announcement happens.
- The wallet has been flagged 48 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$2,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable sharp buying long-shot
Surfaced despite a weak alert because the wallet has an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the trade copy-worthy.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $51K lifetime.
- They bought the long-shot side at 8¢, implying a high-upside bet if the withdrawal announcement happens.
- The wallet has been flagged 48 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$1,096 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Proven sharp flips Yes
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $237K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $7.8M deployed across 93 events.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a contrarian move versus the market’s 9¢ Yes price.
$1,867 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10886856, $181,352 (82% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Outcome 10886856, $104,100 (83% win rate)
- 0x152f...a549 — Outcome 10886856, $90,895 (22% win rate)
- 0x079f...28df — Outcome 10886856, $69,488 (22% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 10886856, $50,000 (23% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 10886856, $43,495 (18% win rate)
- 0xd8e5...b808 — Outcome 10886856, $24,541 (91% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 10886856, $23,293 (74% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10886856, $18,243 (72% win rate)
- 0x29eb...e30f — Outcome 10886856, $15,661
Related Theses
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal by mid-June
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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