Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,004.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is buying No at 90¢ and has broader same-event positioning.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $53.7k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events and 40 markets.
  • The $2.0k No buy is large versus this market’s $2.9k 24h volume.

$2,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $8,352 (76% win rate)
  2. 0x4e39...8cbf — Yes, $3,333
  3. 0x3ad4...993e — Yes, $2,800
  4. 0x5c17...872e — Yes, $2,390 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x9e5d...c928 — Yes, $1,937
  6. 0x71ab...f015 — Yes, $1,329 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xd286...2322 — Yes, $431 (96% win rate)
  8. 0x9c3b...6b17 — Yes, $400
  9. 0xc7b0...bbac — Yes, $348
  10. 0x7ce8...144a — Yes, $330

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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?$2,004 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

2026-07-03 15:50 UTC

$2,004 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

Related Theses