Part of: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
27 smart money signals detected, totaling $127,543.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon
Notable Trades
New whale piling into Yes
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed five-figure bets across multiple positions and just concentrated over $10k into a fast-rising geopolitical market, suggesting strong conviction worth monitoring.
- This wallet is only about 2 days old but has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put over $14k into flagged trades
- bullets
$10,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale chasing geopolitics
A 1.5-day-old wallet has already made nearly $10k in flagged bets across 5 positions and is now buying into a fast-rising geopolitical market with meaningful size.
- This 1.5-day-old wallet has already made 5 sizable bets totaling about $9.6k flagged by the system.
- They bought Yes at 84¢ in a major geopolitics market that is up 12 points in a day and 43 points in a week.
- The trade is meaningful at $1.7k, but the strongest signal here is the wallet’s unusually aggressive activity right after creation.
$1,671 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
94% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate bought Yes at 77¢ in a fast-rising geopolitics market and is already marked up as the price moved to 82¢.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades with $155k in profit across 129 bets
- They bought Yes at 77¢ and the market is already up to 82¢, a quick 5-point move in their favor
- This wallet trades across 67 events and 114 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
$2,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
85% win-rate bettor
A small but credible sharp bettor with an 85% win rate bought Yes at 80¢ in a major geopolitical market after a strong weekly move, making this worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $23k on roughly $97k invested
- They bought Yes at 80¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, suggesting they still see value even after a 36% one-week move
- The position is modest at $1.9k, but the track record is strong enough to make the trade worth following
$1,881 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
94% win-rate macro bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate sold Yes at 69¢, which converts to a Buy No signal at 31¢ on a fast-moving geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades with $165k in profit across 125 bets.
- They trade across 67 events and 114 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 69¢ means the copyable view is BUY No at 31¢ while the market has already moved sharply this week.
$1,578 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
94% win-rate trader
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate sold Yes at 69¢, which translates to a buyable No position at 31¢ from a wallet with an unusually strong long-term record.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $165k across 125 settled markets
- They trade across 67 events and 114 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 69¢ implies the copyable side is BUY No around 31¢, against a market that has already jumped 34% in a day
$1,890 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Pro cross-market geopolitical bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in realized profit opened a fresh $10.7k Yes position into strong momentum on a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor has 878 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up about $955k lifetime.
- They have traded 46 related markets across 33 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They just opened a fresh $10.7k Yes position at 70¢ as this market surged nearly 40 points in a week.
$10,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
94% win-rate contrarian
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate is fading a sharply rallying geopolitics market by effectively buying No at 29¢.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and has made about $165k profit across 125 settled markets.
- They sold Yes at 71¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 29¢ against a market that has jumped nearly 39 points in a day.
- This is a fresh cross-market signal from a trader active across 67 events and 114 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$2,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 70¢ ahead of a major move to 77%, making this a strong signal worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime.
- They trade across many related markets with size: 79 events, 129 markets, and $3.4M deployed.
- They bought Yes at 70¢ and the market is already up to 77¢, showing the thesis is getting validated.
$1,184 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
88% winner flips to No
A historically strong wallet with an 88% win rate flipped from a previously closed Yes position to a fresh $2.6k No buy on a high-information geopolitical market after a sharp weekly price collapse.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $396k lifetime
- They just opened a fresh No position at 66¢ after previously closing a large Yes position in this market
- The market fell 58% over the last week, and this wallet is betting the ceasefire still does not happen by April 30
$2,636 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0x6634...a779 — Outcome 38902668, $35,478
- 0x45b6...676f — Outcome 38902668, $28,360 (44% win rate)
- 0x96cd...f6ea — Outcome 38902668, $27,400
- 0xada7...f8d1 — Outcome 38902668, $26,724
- 0x046b...1868 — Outcome 38902668, $24,795
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 38902668, $20,762 (84% win rate)
- 0x653a...bb03 — Outcome 38902668, $17,364
- 0xb81c...4a55 — Outcome 38902668, $7,300
- 0x3c3e...5a86 — Outcome 38902668, $7,030
- 0x7a61...af24 — Outcome 38902668, $6,044
