Part of: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,986.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon
Notable Trades
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A profitable, high-volume wallet is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across 3 related markets and added a sizable $12.3k position despite the market already moving sharply higher.
- This bettor has won 68% of 266 resolved trades and is up about $235k lifetime
- They placed nearly $19.8k across 3 related markets, showing a coordinated view on this event
- They bought at 84¢ even after the market jumped 17 points in a day, signaling conviction rather than a quick dip buy
$12,321 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Pro cross-market trader flips bullish
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with nearly $1M P&L has flipped from a previously closed No position to a fresh Yes buy as this geopolitical market keeps moving up.
- This bettor has a strong long-term record: 64% wins across 876 resolved bets and about $954k in profit
- They trade event clusters repeatedly, with 40 related markets across 29 events and $93k bet across 3 markets in this same event
- This is a fresh Yes position at 54¢ after previously closing a much larger No stake, suggesting a real view change as odds have risen
$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
88% winner fading rally
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate bought NO against a fast-rising ceasefire market, making this a credible sharp contrarian position worth watching.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime.
- They bought NO at 35¢ while the market had surged 32 points in a week, signaling a sharp contrarian view.
- The bet came from a trader active across related markets with over $21k placed on the same event thesis.
$1,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and $920k in profit just bought Yes at 62¢, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market being fairly liquid.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
- They trade across 70 events and 116 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 62¢, below the current 64¢ price, after this market jumped 26 points over the past week
$3,509 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x046b...1868 — Outcome 48626160, $22,491
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 48626160, $20,340 (79% win rate)
- 0xe70d...9895 — Outcome 48626160, $15,826
- 0x7412...9dca — Outcome 48626160, $7,992
- 0x96cd...f6ea — Outcome 48626160, $7,112
- 0xc1d4...8e51 — Outcome 48626160, $6,589
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 48626160, $5,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xd7a2...2b21 — Outcome 48626160, $4,000
- 0x81dd...5f71 — Outcome 48626160, $3,900
- 0x8fc9...489a — Outcome 48626160, $2,000
Related Theses
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
