Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach an official, publicly announced ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if both sides mutually agree to halt direct military engagement by the deadline; informal de-escalation or unofficial understandings do not count. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity on this market, including $3,509 in tracked capital and one recent signal from an 88% win-rate macro bettor.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,509.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon

Notable Trades

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and $920k in profit just bought Yes at 62¢, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the market being fairly liquid.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime
  • They trade across 70 events and 116 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 62¢, below the current 64¢ price, after this market jumped 26 points over the past week

$3,509 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $6,460 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $4,221 (66% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $3,366 (88% win rate)
  4. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $3,223 (57% win rate)
  5. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $3,000 (38% win rate)
  6. 0x30db...33c0 No, $2,939
  7. 0x7412...9dca No, $2,433
  8. 0xb619...5068 No, $2,145 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x9b6f...0e5f No, $2,088 (50% win rate)
  10. 0xe3f8...2515 Yes, $1,524

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

80d$3,509 tracked1 signalIranIsraelGeopoliticsIran CeasefireLebanon
Yes
65¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Price History — “Yes
70¢
54¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$3,509 on Yes at 62¢

62¢65¢3¢

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