Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $72,185.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$3,045 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Event-wide cross-market bettor

A bettor with substantial event-wide positioning made $5,716 of fresh Yes purchases across a market experiencing a 35.6x volume spike, though the trader’s historical edge is modest.

  • This wallet committed $5,716 to Yes across three purchases while holding positions across 10 related markets totaling $97,734.
  • The market saw a 35.6x surge over its historical trading volume, adding weight to the event-wide positioning.
  • The bettor has a 67% win rate and $106,172 lifetime profit, but its results do not show a strong edge at these high entry prices.

$4,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial 90% winner adds to Yes

A highly active wallet with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets, though its average winning entry price leaves only modest demonstrated edge.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 144 resolved trades and is up $341,285 lifetime.
  • The wallet is active across 30 events and is adding to an existing Yes position across three markets in this event.
  • The new Yes entry was 84¢, while the market is now around 78¢ after a 6-point daily decline, making this a high-conviction but already underwater add.

$5,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Event-wide cross-market bettor

A bettor with substantial event-wide positioning made $5,716 of fresh Yes purchases across a market experiencing a 35.6x volume spike, though the trader’s historical edge is modest.

  • This wallet committed $5,716 to Yes across three purchases while holding positions across 10 related markets totaling $97,734.
  • The market saw a 35.6x surge over its historical trading volume, adding weight to the event-wide positioning.
  • The bettor has a 67% win rate and $106,172 lifetime profit, but its results do not show a strong edge at these high entry prices.

$5,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Repeat event trader buys Yes

A repeat event trader made a concentrated $6.7K Yes purchase amid a 48x volume spike and activity across 10 related markets, though the mixed existing position reduces conviction.

  • This bettor committed $6,719 to Yes across four trades while trading 10 related ceasefire markets totaling nearly $99,000.
  • The market saw a 48x historical volume spike and moved 8 percentage points higher in one day, supporting the directional signal.
  • The wallet is profitable by $98,781 over 135 resolved bets, but its 67% win rate and existing No exposure make this less compelling than a clean new position.

$6,719 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$1,813 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$3,285 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
  • The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
  • This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.

$1,192 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 69096949, $91,151 (67% win rate)
  2. 0x3811...8f61 Outcome 69096949, $57,142 (17% win rate)
  3. 0x94ce...a9fa Outcome 69096949, $53,626 (67% win rate)
  4. 0xa2cd...2ba0 Outcome 69096949, $27,434 (86% win rate)
  5. 0x9d84...1344 Outcome 69096949, $24,032 (43% win rate)
  6. 0x2200...0f2d Outcome 69096949, $21,001 (31% win rate)
  7. 0x88ae...809a Outcome 69096949, $20,271 (75% win rate)
  8. 0xaacb...90cb Outcome 69096949, $18,515 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x8aaa...51df Outcome 69096949, $13,023 (81% win rate)
  10. 0x7131...29cc Outcome 69096949, $10,004 (74% win rate)

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 9 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$72,185 tracked19 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
83¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$3,045 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$4,705 on Yes at 84¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$5,700 on Yes at 84¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$5,716 on Yes at 84¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$6,719 on Yes at 84¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$1,003 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$1,813 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$3,285 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$1,192 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 68¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 75¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

8d ago

$2,094 on Yes at 82¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

8d ago

$2,114 on Yes at 81¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

8d ago

$1,626 on Yes at 64¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

8d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 72¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

8d ago

$7,209 on No at 31¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

7d ago

$13,270 on No at 31¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

11d ago

$1,594 on Yes at 84¢

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
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Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran keeps airspace open
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