Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $72,185.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$3,045 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Event-wide cross-market bettor
A bettor with substantial event-wide positioning made $5,716 of fresh Yes purchases across a market experiencing a 35.6x volume spike, though the trader’s historical edge is modest.
- This wallet committed $5,716 to Yes across three purchases while holding positions across 10 related markets totaling $97,734.
- The market saw a 35.6x surge over its historical trading volume, adding weight to the event-wide positioning.
- The bettor has a 67% win rate and $106,172 lifetime profit, but its results do not show a strong edge at these high entry prices.
$4,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial 90% winner adds to Yes
A highly active wallet with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets, though its average winning entry price leaves only modest demonstrated edge.
- This bettor has won 90% of 144 resolved trades and is up $341,285 lifetime.
- The wallet is active across 30 events and is adding to an existing Yes position across three markets in this event.
- The new Yes entry was 84¢, while the market is now around 78¢ after a 6-point daily decline, making this a high-conviction but already underwater add.
$5,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Event-wide cross-market bettor
A bettor with substantial event-wide positioning made $5,716 of fresh Yes purchases across a market experiencing a 35.6x volume spike, though the trader’s historical edge is modest.
- This wallet committed $5,716 to Yes across three purchases while holding positions across 10 related markets totaling $97,734.
- The market saw a 35.6x surge over its historical trading volume, adding weight to the event-wide positioning.
- The bettor has a 67% win rate and $106,172 lifetime profit, but its results do not show a strong edge at these high entry prices.
$5,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Repeat event trader buys Yes
A repeat event trader made a concentrated $6.7K Yes purchase amid a 48x volume spike and activity across 10 related markets, though the mixed existing position reduces conviction.
- This bettor committed $6,719 to Yes across four trades while trading 10 related ceasefire markets totaling nearly $99,000.
- The market saw a 48x historical volume spike and moved 8 percentage points higher in one day, supporting the directional signal.
- The wallet is profitable by $98,781 over 135 resolved bets, but its 67% win rate and existing No exposure make this less compelling than a clean new position.
$6,719 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$1,813 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$3,285 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
A six-wallet funded cluster and broad same-event positioning make this a notable coordinated Yes trade despite the trader's only moderate 65% win rate.
- Six linked wallets share a funder and are positioning around this market, a meaningful coordinated-flow signal.
- The trader is a serial cross-market participant with activity across 8 markets and $88,595 on this event.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 82¢ after a prior position was closed, while the market has recently fallen 10.5%.
$1,192 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 69096949, $91,151 (67% win rate)
- 0x3811...8f61 — Outcome 69096949, $57,142 (17% win rate)
- 0x94ce...a9fa — Outcome 69096949, $53,626 (67% win rate)
- 0xa2cd...2ba0 — Outcome 69096949, $27,434 (86% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 69096949, $24,032 (43% win rate)
- 0x2200...0f2d — Outcome 69096949, $21,001 (31% win rate)
- 0x88ae...809a — Outcome 69096949, $20,271 (75% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 69096949, $18,515 (70% win rate)
- 0x8aaa...51df — Outcome 69096949, $13,023 (81% win rate)
- 0x7131...29cc — Outcome 69096949, $10,004 (74% win rate)
Related Theses
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
Covers 5 related markets
Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 9 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
