Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,889.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
84% winner scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 78%, though the price offers only modest apparent edge.
- This bettor has won 84% of 32 resolved trades and is up $32,765 lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position while holding positions across three markets in this event.
- The 78¢ entry is supported by strong recent momentum, with Yes up 11.5% in a day and 23.5% in a week.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Seven-wallet Yes cluster with sharp bettor
Seven wallets committed nearly $20,000 to Yes, including a profitable 88% win-rate bettor, while the market rose 14.5% over the week.
- Seven wallets have put nearly $20,000 behind Yes, with several adding to substantial existing positions.
- One bettor wins 88% of trades and is up $8,526, with a demonstrated edge over their average entry odds.
- Yes has climbed 14.5% in a week to 78%, corroborating the coordinated bullish positioning.
$19,951 on Yes
Six-wallet ceasefire accumulation cluster
Six linked wallets are accumulating Yes alongside a serial cross-market trader, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's only moderate edge.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,427 behind Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- This wallet has traded across 37 events and 53 markets, with a 66% win rate and $89,300 reported profit.
- The market has risen 37% in a week, while this trader continues adding to an existing Yes position despite the recent pullback.
$10,389 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Experienced bettor adds to Yes
A bettor with 111 resolved positions and an 80% win rate is adding to a sizable Yes position in a geopolitically important market, though negative lifetime P&L tempers the signal.
- This bettor has won 80% of 111 resolved trades, providing a meaningful track record despite negative lifetime P&L.
- They are adding to a roughly $7,600 Yes position as the market has risen 23% in one day.
- The $2,650 purchase at 69¢ is a moderate-conviction signal in a liquid ceasefire market, not a thin-market gamble.
$2,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with an 80% win rate is adding to a No position on a geopolitical ceasefire market after a sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 80% of 127 resolved trades and earned nearly $200,000 in profit.
- The wallet added $2,653 to No at 53¢, increasing an existing $5,012 position as No moved to about 60%.
- No gained 13.5 percentage points in roughly five minutes, supporting the trader’s direction despite the market’s long time to resolution.
$1,654 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market already moving sharply higher.
- This bettor has won 85% of 46 resolved trades and is up $136,325 overall.
- They are adding $1,657 to an existing Yes position after already investing $5,727 at a 54¢ average entry.
- The market has risen 19% in one day, reinforcing the bettor’s bullish ceasefire thesis but leaving less room for error.
$1,657 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
92% winner backing No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is selling Yes and signaling No across six related markets, though this appears partly to be position management.
- This bettor has won 92% of 74 resolved trades and is up $29,469 lifetime.
- They are positioning across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with $11,294 committed and a 92% historical win rate.
- The trade converts to buying No around 56¢, although the wallet previously held and closed a Yes position in this market.
$1,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with an 80% win rate is adding to a No position on a geopolitical ceasefire market after a sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 80% of 127 resolved trades and earned nearly $200,000 in profit.
- The wallet added $2,653 to No at 53¢, increasing an existing $5,012 position as No moved to about 60%.
- No gained 13.5 percentage points in roughly five minutes, supporting the trader’s direction despite the market’s long time to resolution.
$2,653 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Six-wallet ceasefire accumulation cluster
Six linked wallets are accumulating Yes alongside a serial cross-market trader, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's only moderate edge.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,427 behind Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- This wallet has traded across 37 events and 53 markets, with a 66% win rate and $89,300 reported profit.
- The market has risen 37% in a week, while this trader continues adding to an existing Yes position despite the recent pullback.
$5,427 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xc3db...0f98 — Outcome 89213299, $97,399 (47% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 89213299, $42,930 (76% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 89213299, $26,475 (76% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Outcome 89213299, $24,358 (35% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 89213299, $23,596 (73% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — Outcome 89213299, $23,451
- 0xffa3...3d81 — Outcome 89213299, $21,356 (49% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 89213299, $20,240 (70% win rate)
- 0xbc8c...273f — Outcome 89213299, $19,582 (73% win rate)
- 0x425b...18f1 — Outcome 89213299, $16,996 (77% win rate)
Related Theses
Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
Covers 14 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran blockade ends in August
Covers 7 related markets
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
Covers 3 related markets
Iran blockade ends August 23–31
Covers 5 related markets
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 6 related markets
No Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
No early June deal
Covers 2 related markets
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
Covers 4 related markets
