Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,287.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet scaling into Yes

A profitable nine-day-old repeat bettor is adding to a sizable Yes position at 76¢ after five flagged large bets.

  • This 9-day-old wallet has made five large flagged bets and is up $4,786 overall.
  • It has won all 3 resolved bets and is adding to an existing $5,292 Yes position.
  • The 76¢ entry is below the market's current 80¢ price, implying a strong continuation view.

$4,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Six-wallet cluster backing Yes

A linked six-wallet cluster is positioning alongside a serial cross-market trader who has deployed $89,713 across nine markets in this event, though the individual win rate is not especially sharp relative to entry prices.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader has placed $89,713 across nine markets in the same event, a broad and deliberate thesis.
  • The wallet has a 65% win rate across 124 resolved bets, but its 92% average winning entry price makes that record only moderately informative.

$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Event-wide Yes conviction

A repeat bettor has scaled into Yes across 10 related markets, backed by an $8.1K addition and a major event-wide volume spike, though its historical edge is modest.

  • This wallet has deployed $103,000 across 10 markets in the same Israel-Iran ceasefire event, signaling a broad directional thesis.
  • It added $8,148 to Yes despite already holding $6,267, bringing its estimated average entry near 71¢.
  • The wallet is profitable with a 66% win rate over 134 resolved bets, but its 92¢ average winning entry suggests only modest evidence of a true edge.

$8,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Funded cluster scaling into Yes

A six-wallet funded cluster and coordinated cross-market positioning support this trader's continued Yes exposure despite a 66% market price.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,687 toward the same thesis.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position while also selling No, showing continued directional conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across 10 markets in this event with $92,192 in volume and a 66% win rate.

$3,359 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Funded cluster scaling into Yes

A six-wallet funded cluster and coordinated cross-market positioning support this trader's continued Yes exposure despite a 66% market price.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,687 toward the same thesis.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position while also selling No, showing continued directional conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across 10 markets in this event with $92,192 in volume and a 66% win rate.

$3,599 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet cluster backing Yes

A linked six-wallet cluster is positioning alongside a serial cross-market trader who has deployed $89,713 across nine markets in this event, though the individual win rate is not especially sharp relative to entry prices.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader has placed $89,713 across nine markets in the same event, a broad and deliberate thesis.
  • The wallet has a 65% win rate across 124 resolved bets, but its 92% average winning entry price makes that record only moderately informative.

$1,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0xaacb...90cb — No, $16,664 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x85a2...203c — No, $11,133
  3. 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $10,000 (87% win rate)
  4. 0x64c7...14f3 — No, $6,766
  5. 0xcf78...a054 — No, $4,808
  6. 0x3da4...b509 — No, $4,727
  7. 0x53aa...932b — No, $3,806
  8. 0x3199...fdf3 — No, $3,760
  9. 0xe471...c87c — No, $3,500 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x6c92...9627 — No, $2,976

Related Theses

Ceasefire holds through August

Covers 15 related markets

Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

Covers 9 related markets

Neither party controls the Senate

Covers 2 related markets

Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire holds through December

Covers 7 related markets

Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

Covers 3 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

Ceasefire deal by December 2026

Covers 4 related markets

Bass and Raman both win

Covers 2 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$21,287 tracked6 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-02 01:12 UTC

$4,022 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-01 23:19 UTC

$1,040 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-01 21:58 UTC

$8,148 on Yes at 71¢

71¢→100¢↑29¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-01 21:53 UTC

$3,359 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-01 21:48 UTC

$3,599 on Yes at 69¢

69¢→100¢↑31¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

2026-08-01 06:14 UTC

$1,118 on Yes at 76¢

76¢→100¢↑24¢

Related Theses

Ceasefire holds through August
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Iran blockade likely persists through 2026
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Neither party controls the Senate
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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses
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Iran ceasefire holds through December
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Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
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Fed will hike rates 25 bps
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Ceasefire deal by December 2026
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Bass and Raman both win
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