Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,287.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet scaling into Yes
A profitable nine-day-old repeat bettor is adding to a sizable Yes position at 76¢ after five flagged large bets.
- This 9-day-old wallet has made five large flagged bets and is up $4,786 overall.
- It has won all 3 resolved bets and is adding to an existing $5,292 Yes position.
- The 76¢ entry is below the market's current 80¢ price, implying a strong continuation view.
$4,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Six-wallet cluster backing Yes
A linked six-wallet cluster is positioning alongside a serial cross-market trader who has deployed $89,713 across nine markets in this event, though the individual win rate is not especially sharp relative to entry prices.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The trader has placed $89,713 across nine markets in the same event, a broad and deliberate thesis.
- The wallet has a 65% win rate across 124 resolved bets, but its 92% average winning entry price makes that record only moderately informative.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Event-wide Yes conviction
A repeat bettor has scaled into Yes across 10 related markets, backed by an $8.1K addition and a major event-wide volume spike, though its historical edge is modest.
- This wallet has deployed $103,000 across 10 markets in the same Israel-Iran ceasefire event, signaling a broad directional thesis.
- It added $8,148 to Yes despite already holding $6,267, bringing its estimated average entry near 71¢.
- The wallet is profitable with a 66% win rate over 134 resolved bets, but its 92¢ average winning entry suggests only modest evidence of a true edge.
$8,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Funded cluster scaling into Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and coordinated cross-market positioning support this trader's continued Yes exposure despite a 66% market price.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,687 toward the same thesis.
- This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position while also selling No, showing continued directional conviction.
- The trader has positioned across 10 markets in this event with $92,192 in volume and a 66% win rate.
$3,359 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Funded cluster scaling into Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster and coordinated cross-market positioning support this trader's continued Yes exposure despite a 66% market price.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,687 toward the same thesis.
- This wallet is adding to an existing Yes position while also selling No, showing continued directional conviction.
- The trader has positioned across 10 markets in this event with $92,192 in volume and a 66% win rate.
$3,599 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Six-wallet cluster backing Yes
A linked six-wallet cluster is positioning alongside a serial cross-market trader who has deployed $89,713 across nine markets in this event, though the individual win rate is not especially sharp relative to entry prices.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The trader has placed $89,713 across nine markets in the same event, a broad and deliberate thesis.
- The wallet has a 65% win rate across 124 resolved bets, but its 92% average winning entry price makes that record only moderately informative.
$1,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 18816325, $16,664 (70% win rate)
- 0x85a2...203c — Outcome 18816325, $11,133
- 0xe36f...cd91 — Outcome 18816325, $10,000 (87% win rate)
- 0x64c7...14f3 — Outcome 18816325, $6,766
- 0xcf78...a054 — Outcome 18816325, $4,808
- 0x3da4...b509 — Outcome 18816325, $4,727
- 0x53aa...932b — Outcome 18816325, $3,806
- 0x3199...fdf3 — Outcome 18816325, $3,760
- 0xe471...c87c — Outcome 18816325, $3,500 (48% win rate)
- 0x6c92...9627 — Outcome 18816325, $2,976
Related Theses
Iran blockade ends by August 15
Covers 7 related markets
Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
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Fed will hike rates 25 bps
Covers 2 related markets
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
Covers 3 related markets
Ceasefire comes, collapses, returns
Covers 4 related markets
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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WTI reaches $90, not $95
Covers 2 related markets
Iran deal by June
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Ground Zero wins Map 2
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Clarity Act won’t become law
Covers 1 related market