Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,979.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 84%, though the market is liquid and the signal is moderate.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 63 resolved trades and is up $198,133 lifetime.
  • The wallet has traded 37 events and is adding to its existing Yes position at 84%.
  • Yes has already risen 20 percentage points in the past day, confirming strong market momentum.

$1,016 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Six-wallet funded cluster buys Yes

Six linked wallets are jointly buying Yes in a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong edge.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, creating a stronger signal than a lone $1,600 trade.
  • The market has already risen 7.5% in one day and 9.5% in a week, confirming directional momentum.
  • This wallet previously held and closed No, then reversed into Yes at 80¢; its 69% win rate is only modestly compelling given its 93¢ average winning entry.

$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

93% winner adds to funded cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader added to an existing Yes position while operating within a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 202 resolved trades and is up $131,553.
  • The wallet is adding $1,147 to an existing $5,803 Yes position despite the price falling to 84%.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder have deployed $8,729 around this market and related event markets.

$4,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial event trader buys Yes

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is making a fresh $3,750 Yes purchase at 75%.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 326 resolved trades and earned $692,032 in profit.
  • The wallet has traded across 78 events and 208 markets, including three markets tied to this event.
  • After previously closing a sizable No position, the trader is now taking fresh Yes exposure at 75%.

$3,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Five-wallet shift toward No

Five-wallet flow shifted strongly toward No, driving a 24-point price decline, with several historically profitable traders reducing Yes exposure and one wallet adding materially to No.

  • Five wallets directed nearly $20,000 toward No, coinciding with a sharp 24-point drop in No pricing.
  • Several participants have strong records, including 78% and 80% win rates across hundreds of resolved trades.
  • The clearest fresh conviction is a $5,000 No purchase at 50¢, while other traders are exiting Yes positions around 72–76¢.

$19,767 on No

Profitable serial trader buys Yes

A highly active, profitable serial trader made a fresh $4.7K Yes purchase during a 38.5x market volume spike, though the historical edge is modest at the current price.

  • This trader is up $745,303 across 88 resolved positions, with a 72% win rate.
  • They made a fresh $4,743 purchase of Yes at 73¢, before the price rose to 78¢.
  • Market activity was 38.5 times its historical average, adding support to the directional move.

$4,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Sharp geopolitical bettor

A profitable bettor with a strong edge record bought Yes on a thin geopolitical market and the price has already moved from 72% to 78%.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets despite usually entering around 40¢.
  • They are up $38.5K lifetime and have put $586K to work across prior positions.
  • The $2.1K buy was large for this quiet market and Yes has already moved from 72¢ to 78¢.

$1,778 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

93% winner adds to funded cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader added to an existing Yes position while operating within a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 202 resolved trades and is up $131,553.
  • The wallet is adding $1,147 to an existing $5,803 Yes position despite the price falling to 84%.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder have deployed $8,729 around this market and related event markets.

$1,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp geopolitical bettor

A profitable bettor with a strong edge record bought Yes on a thin geopolitical market and the price has already moved from 72% to 78%.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets despite usually entering around 40¢.
  • They are up $38.5K lifetime and have put $586K to work across prior positions.
  • The $2.1K buy was large for this quiet market and Yes has already moved from 72¢ to 78¢.

$2,053 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc15b...38af Yes, $85,054 (81% win rate)
  2. 0xc84f...e0c5 Yes, $70,000 (87% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $65,572 (75% win rate)
  4. 0x7bc1...8db4 No, $50,000 (66% win rate)
  5. 0xd104...acef Yes, $42,731 (85% win rate)
  6. 0x0d05...6a81 No, $36,450 (14% win rate)
  7. 0xf915...8720 Yes, $31,545 (98% win rate)
  8. 0xfaf6...cc47 Yes, $28,042 (96% win rate)
  9. 0x35bb...009b Yes, $27,100 (72% win rate)
  10. 0xe07a...6adb No, $25,000

Related Theses

Iran agreement lands May 27

Covers 6 related markets

Iran airspace closure unlikely

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$39,979 tracked9 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
85¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

3d ago

$1,016 on Yes at 84¢

84¢100¢16¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

3d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 80¢

80¢100¢20¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

4d ago

$4,125 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

4d ago

$3,750 on Yes at 75¢

75¢100¢25¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

4d ago

$19,767 on No at 26¢

26¢0¢26¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

5d ago

$4,743 on Yes at 73¢

73¢100¢27¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

5d ago

$1,778 on Yes at 72¢

72¢100¢28¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

7d ago

$1,147 on Yes at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

10d ago

$2,053 on Yes at 72¢

72¢100¢28¢

Related Theses