Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,979.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 84%, though the market is liquid and the signal is moderate.
- This bettor has won 84% of 63 resolved trades and is up $198,133 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded 37 events and is adding to its existing Yes position at 84%.
- Yes has already risen 20 percentage points in the past day, confirming strong market momentum.
$1,016 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Six-wallet funded cluster buys Yes
Six linked wallets are jointly buying Yes in a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong edge.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, creating a stronger signal than a lone $1,600 trade.
- The market has already risen 7.5% in one day and 9.5% in a week, confirming directional momentum.
- This wallet previously held and closed No, then reversed into Yes at 80¢; its 69% win rate is only modestly compelling given its 93¢ average winning entry.
$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner adds to funded cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader added to an existing Yes position while operating within a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 202 resolved trades and is up $131,553.
- The wallet is adding $1,147 to an existing $5,803 Yes position despite the price falling to 84%.
- Nineteen wallets sharing a funder have deployed $8,729 around this market and related event markets.
$4,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial event trader buys Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate is making a fresh $3,750 Yes purchase at 75%.
- This bettor has won 75% of 326 resolved trades and earned $692,032 in profit.
- The wallet has traded across 78 events and 208 markets, including three markets tied to this event.
- After previously closing a sizable No position, the trader is now taking fresh Yes exposure at 75%.
$3,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Five-wallet shift toward No
Five-wallet flow shifted strongly toward No, driving a 24-point price decline, with several historically profitable traders reducing Yes exposure and one wallet adding materially to No.
- Five wallets directed nearly $20,000 toward No, coinciding with a sharp 24-point drop in No pricing.
- Several participants have strong records, including 78% and 80% win rates across hundreds of resolved trades.
- The clearest fresh conviction is a $5,000 No purchase at 50¢, while other traders are exiting Yes positions around 72–76¢.
$19,767 on No
Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, profitable serial trader made a fresh $4.7K Yes purchase during a 38.5x market volume spike, though the historical edge is modest at the current price.
- This trader is up $745,303 across 88 resolved positions, with a 72% win rate.
- They made a fresh $4,743 purchase of Yes at 73¢, before the price rose to 78¢.
- Market activity was 38.5 times its historical average, adding support to the directional move.
$4,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp geopolitical bettor
A profitable bettor with a strong edge record bought Yes on a thin geopolitical market and the price has already moved from 72% to 78%.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets despite usually entering around 40¢.
- They are up $38.5K lifetime and have put $586K to work across prior positions.
- The $2.1K buy was large for this quiet market and Yes has already moved from 72¢ to 78¢.
$1,778 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
93% winner adds to funded cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader added to an existing Yes position while operating within a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 202 resolved trades and is up $131,553.
- The wallet is adding $1,147 to an existing $5,803 Yes position despite the price falling to 84%.
- Nineteen wallets sharing a funder have deployed $8,729 around this market and related event markets.
$1,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp geopolitical bettor
A profitable bettor with a strong edge record bought Yes on a thin geopolitical market and the price has already moved from 72% to 78%.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets despite usually entering around 40¢.
- They are up $38.5K lifetime and have put $586K to work across prior positions.
- The $2.1K buy was large for this quiet market and Yes has already moved from 72¢ to 78¢.
$2,053 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 78490650, $65,572 (76% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 78490650, $50,000 (71% win rate)
- 0x0d05...6a81 — Outcome 78490650, $36,450 (14% win rate)
- 0xe07a...6adb — Outcome 78490650, $25,000
- 0x7062...dccb — Outcome 78490650, $18,900
- 0x3199...fdf3 — Outcome 78490650, $17,135
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 78490650, $15,002 (70% win rate)
- 0x274c...da86 — Outcome 78490650, $14,412 (74% win rate)
- 0x53f7...20b1 — Outcome 78490650, $12,064
- 0x2287...56fa — Outcome 78490650, $9,991
Related Theses
Iran agreement lands May 27
Covers 6 related markets
Iran airspace closure unlikely
Covers 6 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
