Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will remain in effect through July 26, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. The market has tracked $3,884 in smart money, with recent signals favoring Yes; it resolves No if either country takes a qualifying military action before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,342.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a large Yes position in a geopolitical ceasefire market, supported by a serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets.
- Six linked wallets share a funder, signaling coordinated conviction in the ceasefire continuing.
- This trader has placed over $1 million across 43 markets and won 68% of 97 resolved bets.
- The wallet is adding $3,884 at 85¢ to an existing $7,866 Yes position as the market recently rose 16% in one day.
$3,884 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and repeated cross-market positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the individual wallet's only moderate 69% win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same event, a stronger signal than this single $2,624 trade alone.
- The trader has a 69% win rate across 95 resolved bets and has traded 32 events, showing meaningful market experience.
- Yes has risen 12 percentage points in the past day, with entry at 80¢ still implying a potentially favorable view of continued ceasefire.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and repeated cross-market positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the individual wallet's only moderate 69% win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same event, a stronger signal than this single $2,624 trade alone.
- The trader has a 69% win rate across 95 resolved bets and has traded 32 events, showing meaningful market experience.
- Yes has risen 12 percentage points in the past day, with entry at 80¢ still implying a potentially favorable view of continued ceasefire.
$2,624 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
93% win-rate bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and 32-point historical edge made a fresh $10,000 Yes bet at 84%.
- This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved positions, with a 93% win rate and nearly $965,000 in reported profit.
- The $10,000 purchase is a fresh, concentrated bet that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will continue, reinforcing the recent 14-point rise in Yes odds.
- The entry at 84¢ is below the bettor’s historically strong average winning price of 63¢ only in absolute terms, but their long-term results show substantial edge over market-implied odds.
$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
92% winner adds to Yes
A highly successful serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $2,133 to an existing Yes position at 69¢.
- This bettor has won 92% of 60 resolved trades and is up $25,212.
- They are adding $2,133 to an existing Yes position, showing continued conviction rather than taking profits.
- The 69¢ entry implies they value continued ceasefire at materially above the market's current 68% price.
$2,133 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x4699...e03c — Yes, $51,802 (97% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — Yes, $32,992 (85% win rate)
- 0xe07a...6adb — No, $29,671
- 0x2974...9c23 — Yes, $28,495 (90% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $22,832 (51% win rate)
- 0x0d05...6a81 — No, $22,646 (14% win rate)
- 0x2d99...4ca3 — Yes, $20,203 (89% win rate)
- 0xb8fe...ce76 — Yes, $20,106 (56% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $18,203 (73% win rate)
- 0x4354...89a9 — No, $15,915
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