Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,342.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a large Yes position in a geopolitical ceasefire market, supported by a serial cross-market trader with 97 resolved bets.
- Six linked wallets share a funder, signaling coordinated conviction in the ceasefire continuing.
- This trader has placed over $1 million across 43 markets and won 68% of 97 resolved bets.
- The wallet is adding $3,884 at 85¢ to an existing $7,866 Yes position as the market recently rose 16% in one day.
$3,884 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and repeated cross-market positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the individual wallet's only moderate 69% win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same event, a stronger signal than this single $2,624 trade alone.
- The trader has a 69% win rate across 95 resolved bets and has traded 32 events, showing meaningful market experience.
- Yes has risen 12 percentage points in the past day, with entry at 80¢ still implying a potentially favorable view of continued ceasefire.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Six-wallet ceasefire cluster
Six linked wallets and repeated cross-market positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the individual wallet's only moderate 69% win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same event, a stronger signal than this single $2,624 trade alone.
- The trader has a 69% win rate across 95 resolved bets and has traded 32 events, showing meaningful market experience.
- Yes has risen 12 percentage points in the past day, with entry at 80¢ still implying a potentially favorable view of continued ceasefire.
$2,624 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% win-rate bettor buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with a 93% win rate and 32-point historical edge made a fresh $10,000 Yes bet at 84%.
- This bettor has won 252 of 270 resolved positions, with a 93% win rate and nearly $965,000 in reported profit.
- The $10,000 purchase is a fresh, concentrated bet that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will continue, reinforcing the recent 14-point rise in Yes odds.
- The entry at 84¢ is below the bettor’s historically strong average winning price of 63¢ only in absolute terms, but their long-term results show substantial edge over market-implied odds.
$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner adds to Yes
A highly successful serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate is adding $2,133 to an existing Yes position at 69¢.
- This bettor has won 92% of 60 resolved trades and is up $25,212.
- They are adding $2,133 to an existing Yes position, showing continued conviction rather than taking profits.
- The 69¢ entry implies they value continued ceasefire at materially above the market's current 68% price.
$2,133 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xe07a...6adb — Outcome 52258090, $29,671
- 0x0d05...6a81 — Outcome 52258090, $22,232 (14% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 52258090, $18,203 (73% win rate)
- 0x4354...89a9 — Outcome 52258090, $15,915
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 52258090, $12,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 52258090, $11,585 (76% win rate)
- 0x7062...dccb — Outcome 52258090, $7,647
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 52258090, $7,548 (76% win rate)
- 0x3ac3...19d2 — Outcome 52258090, $6,143
- 0xcdbc...f38b — Outcome 52258090, $5,269 (38% win rate)
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