Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

This prediction market asks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will remain in effect through July 29, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if no qualifying military action occurs before the deadline and No otherwise; PolySpotter currently tracks $1,647 in smart money and one signal, with a six-wallet cluster backing Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,647.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Six-wallet cluster backs Yes

A six-wallet funded cluster is building a Yes position in a relatively thin ceasefire market, reinforced by serial cross-market activity across four related markets.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are positioning around the same thesis, with $1,647 committed to Yes.
  • The trade is meaningful in this thin market: $1,647 represents about 14% of total volume and 19% of available liquidity.
  • This wallet has traded across 32 events and 43 markets, with a 67% win rate and $54,276 lifetime profit.

$1,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $17,294 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $11,146 (90% win rate)
  3. 0xbfdd...e70e Yes, $9,428 (72% win rate)
  4. 0xaacb...90cb No, $5,500 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xb25d...d127 No, $5,000 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x2974...9c23 Yes, $4,506 (90% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $3,875 (48% win rate)
  8. 0xdc41...362b Yes, $3,544 (94% win rate)
  9. 0x0799...725c No, $2,367
  10. 0x1c14...6342 Yes, $2,136 (75% win rate)

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Ceasefire briefly breaks, then resumes

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Iran deal by June

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WTI reaches $90, not $95

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Iran won't end enrichment

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No Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026

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Iran airspace will remain open

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U.S. will not invade Iran before 2027

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Hormuz traffic stays disrupted

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Ceasefire delayed past July 24

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No US-Iran meeting by August 31

Covers 1 related market

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

1dIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$1,647 tracked1 signalIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
97¢
No
3¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
99¢
82¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

3d ago

$1,647 on Yes at 72¢

72¢97¢25¢

Related Theses