What is the Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance prediction market?

It is a Polymarket market on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be photographed or videotaped between market creation and December 31, 2026.

What happens if Mojtaba Khamenei is seen in public?

The market resolves to Yes if authentic photo or video is captured and released within the market timeframe and meets the exchange’s resolution rules.

What footage qualifies for a Yes resolution?

The footage must be authentic and newly captured during the market’s timeframe. Archival footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, and staged reproductions do not qualify.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, at 00:00 UTC, subject to its stated resolution criteria.

What is smart money activity saying about this market?

PolySpotter reports $24,657 in tracked smart money and one signal. Recent alerts show wallets increasing positions on No, but this activity is not a guarantee of the final outcome.

Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will be photographed or videotaped in public by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only for authentic, newly released images or video captured during the market’s timeframe; PolySpotter tracks $24,657 in smart money activity, with recent signals leaning toward No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,482.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$24,657 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$1,332 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

New whale buying Yes

A brand-new wallet committed $6,000 to Yes across repeated buys, coinciding with an extreme volume spike and a meaningful price rise in a thin, wide-spread market.

A wallet just 25 minutes old bought $6,000 of Yes across two trades, a large commitment relative to available liquidity.
The market saw a 362.9x historical volume spike while Yes rose 17% over the week and 23% in one day.
The position is concentrated and fresh, though the wallet has no resolved betting history to confirm its edge.

$6,000 on Yes

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$29,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into No

Six linked wallets are coordinating on No in a thin market, with this trader adding $3,120 to an existing No position despite only moderate historical performance.

Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $4,238 toward the same outcome.
This bettor added $3,120 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in No to roughly $9,090.
The trade represented about 961% of the market's 24-hour volume, making it a meaningful move in a thin market.

$3,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%