Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,674.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

6-wallet funded No cluster

High-severity linked-wallet cluster and a repeat cross-market bettor are adding to a No position in a relatively quiet market, though the entry is a high-probability 90¢ favorite.

  • Six wallets funded by the same source are positioned this way, totaling about $7.7k on the cluster.
  • This bettor is adding to an existing No position, now buying at 90¢ after entering earlier around 86¢.
  • The trade was large for this market’s activity, equal to about 63% of the last 24 hours’ volume.

$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

6-wallet funded No cluster

High-severity linked-wallet cluster and a repeat cross-market bettor are adding to a No position in a relatively quiet market, though the entry is a high-probability 90¢ favorite.

  • Six wallets funded by the same source are positioned this way, totaling about $7.7k on the cluster.
  • This bettor is adding to an existing No position, now buying at 90¢ after entering earlier around 86¢.
  • The trade was large for this market’s activity, equal to about 63% of the last 24 hours’ volume.

$2,060 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet linked cluster buys Yes

Six linked wallets have deployed $5,544 toward Yes in a thin market, backed by a serial trader with a 67% win rate.

  • Six linked wallets share a funder and are collectively positioning $5,544 toward Yes.
  • The trade is large relative to recent activity, exceeding 24-hour volume in this thinly traded market.
  • The lead wallet has won 67% of 130 resolved bets and is up $98,800 lifetime.

$5,544 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

6-wallet funded No cluster

High-severity linked-wallet cluster and a repeat cross-market bettor are adding to a No position in a relatively quiet market, though the entry is a high-probability 90¢ favorite.

  • Six wallets funded by the same source are positioned this way, totaling about $7.7k on the cluster.
  • This bettor is adding to an existing No position, now buying at 90¢ after entering earlier around 86¢.
  • The trade was large for this market’s activity, equal to about 63% of the last 24 hours’ volume.

$3,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $37,162 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xb7c7...1b21 — Yes, $15,000
  3. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $13,168 (72% win rate)
  4. 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $5,876 (46% win rate)
  5. 0x5abf...555f — Yes, $5,649
  6. 0x75a2...6992 — Yes, $4,901 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x7a18...001a — Yes, $4,636
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $4,200 (76% win rate)
  9. 0x7e31...454d — No, $3,997 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x1086...27d2 — Yes, $2,900 (60% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran blockade ends in December

Covers 9 related markets

Ceasefire holds through August

Covers 15 related markets

Iran ceasefire holds into winter

Covers 5 related markets

Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

Covers 2 related markets

Neither party controls the Senate

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

Covers 3 related markets

Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

Ceasefire deal by December 2026

Covers 4 related markets

Bass and Raman both win

Covers 2 related markets

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?$13,674 tracked4 signalsMiddle EastIsraelIranGeopolitics
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Notable Trades

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

2026-08-10 20:39 UTC

$2,640 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

2026-08-02 10:41 UTC

$2,060 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

2026-08-01 19:34 UTC

$5,544 on Yes at 20¢

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

2026-07-18 18:49 UTC

$3,430 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

Related Theses

Iran blockade ends in December
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US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Ceasefire holds through August
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Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Iran ceasefire holds into winter
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US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …
Neither party controls the Senate
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Will the Republican Party cont…Will the Democratic Party cont…
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
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US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
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Ceasefire deal by December 2026
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…
Bass and Raman both win
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Will Nithya Raman win the 2026…Will Karen Bass win the 2026 L…