Part of: Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $34,930.

Categories: Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Bab el-Mandeb

Notable Trades

Four-wallet No buying surge

Four wallets added roughly $30,000 to No in a 282x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated directional signal despite limited track-record evidence.

  • Four wallets bought No for nearly $30,000 within minutes, all around 85¢.
  • The trades were about 94% of reported 24-hour volume, during a 282x spike over the historical average.
  • All four wallets already held No, so this was a sizable increase in existing positions rather than fresh exposure.

$29,912 on No

Profitable serial trader backs No

A highly experienced, profitable trader put about $5,000 into No, a substantial share of this market’s recent volume, though the wallet’s 71% win rate does not by itself establish an edge at these entry prices.

  • This bettor has a $1.2M lifetime profit across 1,292 resolved bets.
  • The roughly $5,000 No position represented 68% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The buys averaged about 77¢ per No share; the market currently prices No at 81¢.

$5,018 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

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Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?$34,930 tracked2 signalsIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastSaudi ArabiaBab el-Mandeb
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
102¢
99¢
96¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

2026-10-16 08:27 UTC

$29,912 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

2026-10-05 22:26 UTC

$5,018 on No at 77¢

77¢→100¢↑23¢

Related Theses