Part of: Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

This Russia election prediction market asks whether United Russia will receive the most valid party-list votes in every Russian federal subject in the 2026 legislative elections. It resolves on September 20, 2026, based on separately reported federal party-list results; the provided metadata does not include a current Yes or No price.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,914.

Categories: Russia, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, Russia Election

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet cluster betting against Yes

A seven-wallet funded cluster is positioning against Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's only moderate historical record.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and have deployed $32,464 around this market.
  • The trader sold Yes at 63¢, equivalent to buying No near 37¢.
  • This wallet has 236 resolved trades and is up $157,506, though its 65% win rate is not exceptional at an average 86¢ winning price.

$1,263 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

New whale scaling into No

A five-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed significant capital and is scaling a concentrated No position despite having no resolved track record.

  • This five-day-old wallet has triggered nine large-bet alerts totaling $310,073.
  • It added $25,000 to an existing No position, bringing total investment in No to $55,271.
  • The trade entered at 45¢ while No is currently priced around 42¢, but the wallet has no proven resolved-bet record yet.

$25,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

82% winner makes concentrated Yes bet

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate made a concentrated $8.5K purchase of Yes at 62%, alongside supportive market momentum.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 215 resolved trades and is up $1.08 million.
  • The $8,516 position represents more than the market's reported 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in Yes.
  • Yes has risen 5% over the past week while this serial cross-market trader entered at 62%.

$8,516 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Three-wallet No conviction cluster

Three wallets concentrated over $6,000 on No, including a trader adding to an existing $7,797 No position as the market moved sharply toward No.

  • Three wallets committed $6,134 to No, with direct buys around 37–38¢ before No rose to 70%.
  • One wallet added to an existing $7,797 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than a standalone trade.
  • The market’s Yes price fell 38.5% in one day, corroborating the cluster’s direction.

$6,134 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x369f...873e — No, $55,271 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xf58a...b6e6 — No, $24,448 (92% win rate)
  3. 0x2182...6e1f — No, $20,548
  4. 0x0ff1...7234 — No, $15,074
  5. 0xf579...3e55 — No, $13,475
  6. 0x5eec...e3bb — No, $11,580
  7. 0x5565...0461 — No, $10,622
  8. 0xf09e...8b2b — No, $9,810
  9. 0xd27f...5e39 — No, $7,797 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x73a1...e8bf — No, $7,780

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Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?$40,914 tracked4 signalsRussiaElectionsPoliticsGlobal ElectionsRussia Election
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Notable Trades

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

2026-09-19 00:47 UTC

$1,263 on No at 37¢

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

2026-08-19 21:49 UTC

$25,000 on No at 45¢

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

2026-08-19 21:49 UTC

$8,516 on Yes at 62¢

62¢→100¢↑38¢

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

2026-08-12 11:00 UTC

$6,134 on No at 38¢

Related Theses