Part of: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine will hold a diplomatic meeting focused on a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation by September 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes if a qualifying meeting occurs by 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves No. View live Yes/No odds and smart-money activity on PolySpotter.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,788.

Categories: Russia, zelenskyy, Politics, putin, Ukraine, Geopolitics, zelensky

Notable Trades

Three-wallet No conviction cluster

Three wallets simultaneously added $11.7K to existing No positions, creating a strong concentrated signal supported by an unusual volume spike and one bettor’s 90% win rate.

  • Three wallets simultaneously added $11,728 to existing No positions at 74¢, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • One participating bettor has won 90% of 10 resolved trades, with a 20-point edge over their average entry odds.
  • The trades coincided with a 4,806x historical volume spike in this market.

$11,728 on No

19-wallet sharp-money No cluster

A highly profitable bettor added to a large No position as 19 linked wallets concentrated on the same outcome in a thin market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 250 resolved trades and is up $168,768 lifetime.
  • Nineteen linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated $5,293 on No, with this wallet adding to an existing $7,904 position.
  • The trade took up roughly 83% of recent market volume, and No has since risen from 67¢ to 70¢.

$1,285 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

19-wallet sharp-money No cluster

A highly profitable bettor added to a large No position as 19 linked wallets concentrated on the same outcome in a thin market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 250 resolved trades and is up $168,768 lifetime.
  • Nineteen linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated $5,293 on No, with this wallet adding to an existing $7,904 position.
  • The trade took up roughly 83% of recent market volume, and No has since risen from 67¢ to 70¢.

$3,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

19-wallet sharp-money No cluster

A highly profitable bettor added to a large No position as 19 linked wallets concentrated on the same outcome in a thin market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of 250 resolved trades and is up $168,768 lifetime.
  • Nineteen linked wallets share a funder and have concentrated $5,293 on No, with this wallet adding to an existing $7,904 position.
  • The trade took up roughly 83% of recent market volume, and No has since risen from 67¢ to 70¢.

$5,293 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7319...0299 Yes, $25,750 (26% win rate)
  2. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $18,895 (94% win rate)
  3. 0xda3f...c282 Yes, $10,000 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x0bd8...a74a Yes, $5,181
  5. 0x8a8b...375c No, $4,415 (39% win rate)
  6. 0xbf96...9942 No, $4,158 (74% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a Yes, $3,754 (50% win rate)
  8. 0x8de0...7f22 No, $3,072
  9. 0x5d2f...4adb Yes, $3,000 (61% win rate)
  10. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $2,832 (61% win rate)

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

19dRussia x Ukraine peace talks by...?$21,788 tracked4 signalsRussiazelenskyyPoliticsputinUkraineGeopoliticszelensky
Yes
20¢
No
81¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
92¢
79¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

4d ago

$11,728 on No at 74¢

74¢81¢7¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

36d ago

$1,285 on No at 67¢

67¢81¢14¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

40d ago

$3,482 on No at 67¢

67¢81¢14¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

41d ago

$5,293 on No at 67¢

67¢81¢14¢

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