Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
This prediction market asks whether IMF Portwatch will show Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to at least 60 on a 7-day moving average by May 31, 2026. It covers reported arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, with $6,598 in smart money tracked and recent cluster activity on both Yes and No sides.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $329,426.
Categories: transit, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, ships, Economy, China, Iran
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet on No
A 2-day-old repeat new wallet has now been flagged 9 times and added $6.6k to No on a major geopolitical shipping market, but there is no proven track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet is making repeated large bets, with $30.5k total flagged across 9 alerts.
- This trade adds $6.6k on No at 90¢, backing continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- The market is liquid, but the repeated sizing from a 2-day-old wallet suggests a strong thesis.
$6,598 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
New repeat whale
A 4-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets and has added a $4.3k No position, but its track record is still very limited.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made 5 positions and $10.3k in flagged bets.
- They put $4.3k on No at 89¢, adding a high-conviction bet in a very liquid market.
- The wallet is only slightly profitable so far, with 2 wins from 3 resolved bets.
$4,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%
93% winner buys reversal
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes on Strait traffic normalization at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $311.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 35 events, with $319K in similar multi-market positioning.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a contrarian bet against the recent drift lower.
$6,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
89% serial cross-market bettor
Surfacing because a highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate is buying No despite the market being liquid and already priced heavily that way.
- This bettor has won 89% of 453 resolved markets across hundreds of events.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.66M tracked across 472 markets.
- The $8.8K buy adds to the market’s current momentum toward No, which is already up after Yes fell 9 points today.
$8,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 1-day-old repeat whale wallet is building a sizable No position, with $27.6k flagged across recent large bets despite no resolved track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet is already placing repeated large bets, with $27.6k flagged across 8 alerts.
- This trade adds nearly $5k on No at 88¢, backing the current downtrend in a highly liquid market.
- No resolved history yet, so the signal is conviction from size and repeat activity rather than proven wins.
$4,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume trader with a long cross-market history is making a fresh $11.4k No bet after previously closing a Yes position.
- This bettor has 1,045 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $294k lifetime.
- They have traded across 47 events and $1.17M of related markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven approach.
- This is a fresh $11.4k Buy No at 88¢ after closing an earlier Yes position.
$11,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial trader flips No
Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable record is buying No on a liquid geopolitical shipping market after previously closing a large Yes position.
- This bettor has a deep track record: 1,045 resolved trades, 67% wins, and about $294K profit.
- They have traded across 67 markets and 47 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They previously had a large Yes position here, but are now buying No at 87¢ as the market has moved against Yes.
$1,243 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New repeat bettor buying Yes
A 14-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is effectively buying Yes on the Hormuz traffic market after 21 flagged bets.
- This new wallet has already made 21 large flagged bets totaling $77.6K and is up about $2.5K.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 15¢ while the market has been sliding over the past week.
- The bet is meaningful at $7.65K, though this is a very liquid market with over $1M traded in the last 24 hours.
$7,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New profitable repeat whale
A young repeat high-stakes wallet with early profits is effectively buying Yes on the Hormuz traffic recovery market despite recent negative momentum.
- This new wallet has already put about $70k into flagged trades and is up $2.5k so far.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, against a market that has drifted down 9 points today.
- The wallet has 5 resolved wins and no losses, though the sample is still small and mostly near-certain exits.
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market flipper
Serial cross-market trader with a very large resolved sample is flipping toward Yes after closing a sizable No position, though lifetime P&L is negative and the bet is modest for this liquid market.
- This bettor has a long track record across 268 markets and wins 75% of resolved bets.
- They previously held a $21K No position here, then switched to buying Yes at 14¢.
- Entry at 14¢ is a contrarian bet after Yes fell 9 points in the past day.
$3,576 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x73e2...13c3 — Yes, $547,657
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $490,452 (100% win rate)
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $473,745 (63% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $450,000 (58% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $404,035 (72% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $376,372 (55% win rate)
- 0x7523...4c4c — No, $332,799 (47% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $324,786 (81% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $324,450 (68% win rate)
- 0x9351...9e4d — No, $300,000 (83% win rate)
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