Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

This Polymarket asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by the end of May 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or above 60 on any date through May 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to price the outlook for regional stability, oil flows, and commercial shipping through one of the world’s most important chokepoints.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,250.

Categories: transit, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, ships, Economy, China, Iran

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate bought No at 41¢ in a rising geopolitical market, offering a notable contrarian follow signal.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 545 resolved markets across 374 events.
  • They bought No at 41¢ even after this market jumped 28 points in a week.
  • The market is active and liquid, so this looks like a deliberate view rather than a random thin-market punt.

$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5714...8ac9 Yes, $22,370
  2. 0x3906...7556 Yes, $20,046 (40% win rate)
  3. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $16,227 (62% win rate)
  4. 0x1c14...0869 No, $15,290 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x2501...7e28 No, $13,781
  6. 0x8495...b6e8 Yes, $11,874 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x9648...6825 No, $11,276 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x7d9c...00f6 Yes, $10,200 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x83e8...7b89 No, $10,000
  10. 0x51f5...2e8d Yes, $6,693

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

48d$1,250 tracked1 signaltransitGeopoliticsU.S. x IranHormuzMacro GeopoliticsOilStrait of HormuzshipsEconomyChinaIran
Yes
40¢
No
61¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
68¢
47¢
26¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

1h ago

$1,250 on No at 41¢

41¢61¢20¢

Related Theses

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter