Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
This Polymarket asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by May 15, 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of arrivals of ships at or above 60 on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is tied to one of the world's most important oil and trade chokepoints, making it relevant for traders watching Iran, energy flows, and geopolitical risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,000.
Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, transit, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Oil, ships, U.S. x Iran, Economy, Geopolitics, China
Notable Trades
New whale buying NO
A 10-day-old wallet with repeated large bets put $3,000 into NO on a very thin geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited history.
- A 10-day-old wallet has already been flagged 4 times and has put over $8.4k into notable bets
- This trade was bigger than the market's full recent volume, with $3,000 going into a market that had only about $482 traded
- They bought NO at 78-80¢ and the market is now 82¢, so the position moved their way quickly
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 0%
Top Holders
- 0xa8e6...18df — No, $5,216 (0% win rate)
- 0xd414...a4db — Yes, $2,997 (51% win rate)
- 0x3a40...f29e — Yes, $2,379 (67% win rate)
- 0xb6f6...3075 — No, $2,000
- 0x4347...0343 — Yes, $1,800
- 0x1f58...62a5 — No, $1,247
- 0xd13c...02f4 — Yes, $808
- 0x1ee9...197f — Yes, $689 (73% win rate)
- 0x7712...0c28 — No, $459
- 0x5f45...a77a — Yes, $303 (62% win rate)
