Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
27 signals across 1 market · $180,521 tracked · resolves May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial traders buying longshot YES
Three experienced, profitable cross-market traders are re-entering the same longshot Yes side after a sharp price decline, though size is modest versus market volume.
$5,454Score: 8.1 - New whale pressing YES
A 1-day-old wallet with nearly $90k in repeated flagged bets just added $20k to YES during a major volume spike, suggesting strong fresh conviction on a geopolitical market.
$20,000Score: 8.0 - New whale buying Yes
A 7-hour-old wallet has already made repeated large bets and just put $14k into Yes during a 32.6x volume spike, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning on a real-world shipping market.
$14,000Score: 7.5 - Pro bettor reloading NO
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 74% win rate reopened a sizable No position during a major volume surge in a geopolitically driven market.
$13,055Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 6.2 - New whale buying NO
A 10-day-old wallet with repeated large bets put $3,000 into NO on a very thin geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited history.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 6.0 - Sharp cluster flips to Yes
Four wallets, including several with strong historical win rates, are rotating together into Yes around 20¢ in a large one-sided cluster after previously closing No positions, suggesting a coordinated thesis shift rather than routine activity.
$14,617Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across markets and just put $10k into a low-probability geopolitical outcome, suggesting strong conviction worth watching.
$10,000Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A 7-hour-old wallet has repeatedly deployed size across Polymarket and just put another $4,000 into a geopolitical market at 21¢, which is notable enough to watch despite no proven track record yet.
$4,000Score: 5.5 - New whale buying Yes
A 2-hour-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets and just put $5,000 into a contrarian Yes position at 18¢, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.
$5,000Score: 5.5 - New whale buying longshots
A 2-hour-old wallet has already made five large flagged bets totaling $18.7k and just put $5k into a low-probability Yes outcome, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.
$5,000Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x766e1f…21cd$75,038 · 1 market · 10 alerts
- 0x511fd1…be4f$32,247 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0x35bbba…009b$19,453 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xcc05ed…013a$7,435 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x2e0b70…8070$6,470 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$5,630 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 65% wins
- 0xea7957…a9cc$3,950 · 1 market · 1 alert · 66% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$3,571 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0xa8e6bb…18df$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins
- 0x9d7369…216b$1,856 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins