Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
27 signals across 1 market · $180,521 tracked · resolves May 15, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to “normal” levels by May 15, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching at least 60. Traders are pricing Yes and No outcomes around a key geopolitical and oil-shipping chokepoint, with PolySpotter tracking $180,521 in smart money activity across 27 signals.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial traders buying longshot YES
Three experienced, profitable cross-market traders are re-entering the same longshot Yes side after a sharp price decline, though size is modest versus market volume.
$5,454Score: 8.1 - New whale pressing YES
A 1-day-old wallet with nearly $90k in repeated flagged bets just added $20k to YES during a major volume spike, suggesting strong fresh conviction on a geopolitical market.
$20,000Score: 8.0 - New whale buying Yes
A 7-hour-old wallet has already made repeated large bets and just put $14k into Yes during a 32.6x volume spike, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning on a real-world shipping market.
$14,000Score: 7.5 - Pro bettor reloading NO
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a 74% win rate reopened a sizable No position during a major volume surge in a geopolitically driven market.
$13,055Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 6.2 - New whale buying NO
A 10-day-old wallet with repeated large bets put $3,000 into NO on a very thin geopolitics market, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited history.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 6.0 - Sharp cluster flips to Yes
Four wallets, including several with strong historical win rates, are rotating together into Yes around 20¢ in a large one-sided cluster after previously closing No positions, suggesting a coordinated thesis shift rather than routine activity.
$14,617Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A brand-new wallet has already made 13 large bets totaling $55.7k and just bought Yes at 19¢, a sign of sustained high-conviction positioning rather than a one-off punt.
$4,000Score: 5.5 - New whale buying longshots
A 2-hour-old wallet has already made five large flagged bets totaling $18.7k and just put $5k into a low-probability Yes outcome, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.
$5,000Score: 5.5 - New whale buying Yes
A 2-hour-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets and just put $5,000 into a contrarian Yes position at 18¢, suggesting fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.
$5,000Score: 5.5 - Repeat new-wallet whale
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly made large bets and just put another $3.9k into Yes at 23¢ on a geopolitically driven market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching.
$3,882Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x766e1f…21cd$75,038 · 1 market · 10 alerts
- 0x511fd1…be4f$32,247 · 1 market · 4 alerts
- 0x35bbba…009b$19,453 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xcc05ed…013a$7,435 · 1 market · 1 alert · 65% wins
- 0x2e0b70…8070$6,470 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$5,630 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xea7957…a9cc$3,950 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$3,571 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xa8e6bb…18df$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins
- 0x9d7369…216b$1,856 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
The live Polymarket odds reflect whether traders think IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the deadline. PolySpotter tracks how those odds move alongside smart money activity.
What is the smart money doing in this Strait of Hormuz market?
Recent signals are mixed: profitable serial traders and new whales have been buying longshot Yes, while at least one pro bettor has been reloading on No. That suggests active disagreement among sophisticated traders rather than a one-sided consensus.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 for any date from market creation through May 15, 2026. If that does not happen, it resolves No.
Why does Strait of Hormuz traffic matter to prediction-market traders?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for oil and commercial shipping, so disruptions or normalization can reflect broader geopolitical risk involving Iran, energy markets, and global trade. That makes shipping-traffic data a closely watched macro signal.