Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will sign any qualifying written agreement by 11:59 PM ET on June 15, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if authorized representatives of both governments sign the same document or related documents showing direct acceptance of the same agreement. PolySpotter is tracking $4,604 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this geopolitical market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,793.

Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Deadline volume surge

Massive late volume spike and a 58-point one-day move make this a notable momentum trade despite the wallet’s ordinary track record.

  • A major money surge is pushing this market: 24h volume hit $435k and odds jumped 58 points.
  • This wallet bought nearly $9k of Yes across five trades at about 86¢.
  • The market is close to its deadline, so fast political volume like this is worth watching.

$8,987 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Sharp cluster buying No

Six wallets, including multiple highly profitable cross-market traders, sold Yes into a major price spike, effectively buying No around 18¢ on a high-volume US-Iran agreement market.

  • Six wallets put $25.4k on the same side, effectively betting No while Yes surged 58 points in a day.
  • Two wallets have very strong records: one wins 89% of resolved bets and another is up about $750k lifetime.
  • One trader has bet across 30 related events with an 89% win rate, suggesting a repeat cross-market edge.

$25,440 on No

Geopolitical momentum breakout

Surface as a momentum alert: a geopolitical market is seeing a 67x volume spike and a major Yes price breakout, though the specific wallet is not a proven sharp bettor.

  • Yes has surged sharply, with volume running 67x above its normal pace.
  • The market has traded $331k in the last 24 hours versus $392k total, showing a fresh wave of positioning.
  • This buyer entered at 88¢ after a major breakout, implying conviction that the agreement is now highly likely.

$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 43%

Elite bettor buying dip-risk Yes

Surfaced because the buyer has an exceptional long-term record despite this Yes position moving sharply against their 54¢ entry.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $327K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 54¢ in a market now trading near 16¢, so the position has moved heavily against them.
  • The market is close to its deadline, making any sharp trader activity worth monitoring.

$2,761 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

  1. 0x53e5...6177 Yes, $41,627 (43% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $20,387 (47% win rate)
  3. 0xf0d5...c665 Yes, $14,628 (89% win rate)
  4. 0xb45e...605f No, $12,785 (92% win rate)
  5. 0x3666...aab6 Yes, $11,904
  6. 0xe234...304a Yes, $10,964 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x05ab...8145 No, $9,138 (45% win rate)
  8. 0x3c59...1766 Yes, $6,860 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x058f...4883 No, $6,486 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xb454...9b90 No, $6,250 (83% win rate)

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Iran deal delayed one week

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No Iran deal by June

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GameStop won't acquire eBay

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Equatorial Guinea and Comoros draw

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Peace deal lands early June

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US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

11hUS and Iran sign an agreement by...?$41,793 tracked4 signalsIranTreatyU.S. x IranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
82¢
42¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

1h ago

$8,987 on Yes at 86¢

86¢86¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

1h ago

$25,440 on No at 18¢

18¢14¢4¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

2h ago

$4,604 on Yes at 88¢

88¢86¢2¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

2h ago

$2,761 on Yes at 54¢

54¢86¢32¢

Related Theses