Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,295.

Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Serial trader on news spike

Experienced cross-market trader bought Yes into a major late-stage volume and price surge on a geopolitics market near its deadline.

  • This experienced event trader has bet across 58 markets and wins 63% of resolved trades.
  • Market activity surged 68x while Yes jumped 58 points in the last day.
  • They bought $3.1k of Yes at 81¢, and the market has already moved to 86¢.

$3,091 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Deadline volume surge

Massive late volume spike and a 58-point one-day move make this a notable momentum trade despite the wallet’s ordinary track record.

  • A major money surge is pushing this market: 24h volume hit $435k and odds jumped 58 points.
  • This wallet bought nearly $9k of Yes across five trades at about 86¢.
  • The market is close to its deadline, so fast political volume like this is worth watching.

$8,987 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%

Profitable wallets fading spike

Three profitable wallets collectively sold Yes near a same-day political deadline after a huge rally, effectively buying No and causing a sharp pullback.

  • The lead bettor has won 72% of 390 resolved trades and is up $393k lifetime.
  • Three wallets all faded the same side, effectively buying No with $5.9k total exposure.
  • The Yes price dropped about 18 points after these sells, reversing part of a 46-point daily rally.

$5,851 on No

Geopolitical momentum breakout

Surface as a momentum alert: a geopolitical market is seeing a 67x volume spike and a major Yes price breakout, though the specific wallet is not a proven sharp bettor.

  • Yes has surged sharply, with volume running 67x above its normal pace.
  • The market has traded $331k in the last 24 hours versus $392k total, showing a fresh wave of positioning.
  • This buyer entered at 88¢ after a major breakout, implying conviction that the agreement is now highly likely.

$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%

Elite bettor buying dip-risk Yes

Surfaced because the buyer has an exceptional long-term record despite this Yes position moving sharply against their 54¢ entry.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $327K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 54¢ in a market now trading near 16¢, so the position has moved heavily against them.
  • The market is close to its deadline, making any sharp trader activity worth monitoring.

$2,761 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 46136276, $1,047,038 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xd4d6...d103 Outcome 46136276, $549,291
  3. 0xc073...a9b0 Outcome 46136276, $524,000 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x0e93...059b Outcome 46136276, $346,667
  5. 0x46b4...72e9 Outcome 46136276, $273,797
  6. 0x78e7...2c77 Outcome 46136276, $264,952 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x4f5d...ea9e Outcome 46136276, $199,999 (50% win rate)
  8. 0x220f...8e2e Outcome 46136276, $127,563
  9. 0x9604...fc1d Outcome 46136276, $120,000 (83% win rate)
  10. 0x75d6...900a Outcome 46136276, $108,000

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US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

ResolvedUS and Iran sign an agreement by...?$25,295 tracked5 signalsIranTreatyU.S. x IranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsPeace Deal

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

54d ago

$3,091 on Yes at 81¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

54d ago

$8,987 on Yes at 86¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

54d ago

$5,851 on No at 25¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

54d ago

$4,604 on Yes at 88¢

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

54d ago

$2,761 on Yes at 54¢

Related Theses