Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,295.
Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Serial trader on news spike
Experienced cross-market trader bought Yes into a major late-stage volume and price surge on a geopolitics market near its deadline.
- This experienced event trader has bet across 58 markets and wins 63% of resolved trades.
- Market activity surged 68x while Yes jumped 58 points in the last day.
- They bought $3.1k of Yes at 81¢, and the market has already moved to 86¢.
$3,091 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Deadline volume surge
Massive late volume spike and a 58-point one-day move make this a notable momentum trade despite the wallet’s ordinary track record.
- A major money surge is pushing this market: 24h volume hit $435k and odds jumped 58 points.
- This wallet bought nearly $9k of Yes across five trades at about 86¢.
- The market is close to its deadline, so fast political volume like this is worth watching.
$8,987 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Profitable wallets fading spike
Three profitable wallets collectively sold Yes near a same-day political deadline after a huge rally, effectively buying No and causing a sharp pullback.
- The lead bettor has won 72% of 390 resolved trades and is up $393k lifetime.
- Three wallets all faded the same side, effectively buying No with $5.9k total exposure.
- The Yes price dropped about 18 points after these sells, reversing part of a 46-point daily rally.
$5,851 on No
Geopolitical momentum breakout
Surface as a momentum alert: a geopolitical market is seeing a 67x volume spike and a major Yes price breakout, though the specific wallet is not a proven sharp bettor.
- Yes has surged sharply, with volume running 67x above its normal pace.
- The market has traded $331k in the last 24 hours versus $392k total, showing a fresh wave of positioning.
- This buyer entered at 88¢ after a major breakout, implying conviction that the agreement is now highly likely.
$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Elite bettor buying dip-risk Yes
Surfaced because the buyer has an exceptional long-term record despite this Yes position moving sharply against their 54¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $327K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 54¢ in a market now trading near 16¢, so the position has moved heavily against them.
- The market is close to its deadline, making any sharp trader activity worth monitoring.
$2,761 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 46136276, $1,047,038 (57% win rate)
- 0xd4d6...d103 — Outcome 46136276, $549,291
- 0xc073...a9b0 — Outcome 46136276, $524,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x0e93...059b — Outcome 46136276, $346,667
- 0x46b4...72e9 — Outcome 46136276, $273,797
- 0x78e7...2c77 — Outcome 46136276, $264,952 (100% win rate)
- 0x4f5d...ea9e — Outcome 46136276, $199,999 (50% win rate)
- 0x220f...8e2e — Outcome 46136276, $127,563
- 0x9604...fc1d — Outcome 46136276, $120,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x75d6...900a — Outcome 46136276, $108,000
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