Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $35,006.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
94% winner scales into No
A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $6,751 to an existing No position at 89¢ while expressing the same view across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $100,451 lifetime.
- They added $6,751 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to over $15,000.
- The wallet is taking the same view across three related markets, signaling concentrated conviction.
$8,109 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
94% winner scales into No
A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $6,751 to an existing No position at 89¢ while expressing the same view across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $100,451 lifetime.
- They added $6,751 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to over $15,000.
- The wallet is taking the same view across three related markets, signaling concentrated conviction.
$6,751 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% win-rate serial trader adds No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $6,254 to an existing No position, though the entry is near current market odds.
- This bettor has won 92% of 84 resolved trades and is up nearly $68,000.
- The trader is adding $6,254 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the blockade will not end by August 22.
- The 74¢ entry implies No is favored, but the market has still moved 8.5 percentage points toward Yes over the past day.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Coordinated No buyers with proven track records
Four wallets added nearly $9,900 to No, including highly profitable serial cross-market traders, making this a meaningful coordinated conviction signal despite the market already pricing No at 76%.
- Four wallets bought No for nearly $9,900, with three adding to existing No positions rather than merely taking profits.
- The group includes a bettor with a 92% win rate across 85 resolved trades and serial traders winning 82% across 58 events.
- The weighted entry was about 75¢ while No is now 76¢, so the trade has shown slight immediate confirmation.
$9,892 on No
92% win-rate serial trader adds No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding $6,254 to an existing No position, though the entry is near current market odds.
- This bettor has won 92% of 84 resolved trades and is up nearly $68,000.
- The trader is adding $6,254 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction that the blockade will not end by August 22.
- The 74¢ entry implies No is favored, but the market has still moved 8.5 percentage points toward Yes over the past day.
$6,254 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $86,187 (87% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $69,999 (53% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $43,508 (73% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $15,022 (70% win rate)
- 0xc4c8...cabb — Yes, $12,091 (25% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $10,713 (70% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $8,250 (71% win rate)
- 0xf9b7...60a4 — Yes, $6,695 (66% win rate)
- 0xe94b...5abe — Yes, $4,825 (73% win rate)
- 0xd75a...fdec — Yes, $4,703 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran blockade ends by September 7
Covers 7 related markets
Hormuz traffic will remain high
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Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader
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Foreign intervention in Gaza soon
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Houthis will hit shipping
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Iranian blockade persists through September
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Phase II ceasefire won’t happen
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Houthis avoid Saudi attacks
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Ceasefire holds through mid-August
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Hamas will refuse to disarm
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