Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. government will publicly and officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The current odds were not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $15,000 in smart money and one signal for this market.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $50,000.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor is adding $20,000 to an existing No position while taking a large, consistent position across 11 related markets, though their win rate trails their average winning entry odds.
- The bettor has made $81,773 across 30 resolved markets and is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.
- They have placed $288,165 across 11 markets tied to the same event, showing a substantial, consistent thesis.
- No was bought at 87¢; the wallet’s 73% win rate is below its 78¢ average winning entry price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor is adding $20,000 to an existing No position while taking a large, consistent position across 11 related markets, though their win rate trails their average winning entry odds.
- The bettor has made $81,773 across 30 resolved markets and is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.
- They have placed $288,165 across 11 markets tied to the same event, showing a substantial, consistent thesis.
- No was bought at 87¢; the wallet’s 73% win rate is below its 78¢ average winning entry price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor is adding $20,000 to an existing No position while taking a large, consistent position across 11 related markets, though their win rate trails their average winning entry odds.
- The bettor has made $81,773 across 30 resolved markets and is adding $20,000 to an existing No position.
- They have placed $288,165 across 11 markets tied to the same event, showing a substantial, consistent thesis.
- No was bought at 87¢; the wallet’s 73% win rate is below its 78¢ average winning entry price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.
$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
93% bettor adding to multi-market thesis
A historically successful bettor added $15,000 to an existing No position while holding $66,664 across six related markets, making this a notable directional thesis despite modest edge at the entry odds.
- This bettor has won 93% of 43 resolved trades and is up $45,089 overall.
- They added $15,000 to an existing No position and have $66,664 across six related markets.
- No was bought at 87¢, near the market’s 88¢ odds, so the track record and broader positioning are stronger signals than a clear price discount.
$15,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x9e72...99c4 — No, $65,262 (73% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $26,512 (53% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $22,095 (35% win rate)
- 0x199d...6e7b — No, $17,173 (93% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $10,982 (71% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $8,547 (60% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $7,833 (70% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $7,831 (53% win rate)
- 0x290d...dc40 — No, $6,256 (81% win rate)
- 0xe154...0b7f — Yes, $5,056 (10% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran airspace closes late-year
Covers 6 related markets
Iranian blockade will continue
Covers 6 related markets
Iranian blockade will persist
Covers 11 related markets
Oil relief, no asset unfreeze
Covers 2 related markets
Iran-Oman Hormuz deal delayed
Covers 2 related markets
