Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,676.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$2,277 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$1,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$7,019 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$6,518 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader across seven markets

A profitable, proven trader is making a $6,568 No bet while positioning across seven related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 133 resolved trades and is up $237,332 lifetime.
  • They have $36,232 positioned across seven markets tied to this event, with a 74% win rate.
  • They bought No at 88¢; the market currently prices No at about 88¢.

$6,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable bettor scaling No across nine markets

A historically profitable bettor is adding to a substantial No position while holding $189,024 across nine related markets.

  • This bettor is adding $5,000 to an existing No position already worth over $44,000.
  • They have placed $189,024 across nine related markets, and their record is 18 wins from 25 resolved bets.
  • The new No entry is 90¢, with the market currently pricing No at about 90¢.

$5,261 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable bettor scaling No across nine markets

A historically profitable bettor is adding to a substantial No position while holding $189,024 across nine related markets.

  • This bettor is adding $5,000 to an existing No position already worth over $44,000.
  • They have placed $189,024 across nine related markets, and their record is 18 wins from 25 resolved bets.
  • The new No entry is 90¢, with the market currently pricing No at about 90¢.

$1,524 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable bettor scaling No across nine markets

A historically profitable bettor is adding to a substantial No position while holding $189,024 across nine related markets.

  • This bettor is adding $5,000 to an existing No position already worth over $44,000.
  • They have placed $189,024 across nine related markets, and their record is 18 wins from 25 resolved bets.
  • The new No entry is 90¢, with the market currently pricing No at about 90¢.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Nine-market event position

The wallet added $10,000 to an existing No position and has made $167,930 in related event bets across nine markets, though its 72% record does not clearly beat its average entry odds.

  • The bettor has placed $167,930 across nine markets tied to this event, showing a substantial, sustained position.
  • They added $10,000 to an existing No position; the two new buys averaged 84¢, and the wallet is up $48,144 across 25 resolved bets.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$48,676 tracked10 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-08 22:41 UTC

$2,277 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-08 16:29 UTC

$1,509 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-08 12:47 UTC

$3,000 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-07 20:25 UTC

$7,019 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-07 15:12 UTC

$6,518 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-06 19:41 UTC

$6,568 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-04 15:07 UTC

$5,261 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-04 04:33 UTC

$1,524 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-03 16:47 UTC

$5,000 on No at 90¢

90¢→100¢↑10¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

2026-10-03 16:38 UTC

$10,000 on No at 84¢

84¢→100¢↑16¢

Related Theses