Part of: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,825.

Categories: Iran, US-Iran, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to Yes

A serial cross-market trader with 415 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position amid an extreme volume spike and a sharp price rise.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 415 resolved trades and is up $117,462 lifetime.
  • They added $1,221 to an existing Yes position, reinforcing conviction at 89¢.
  • Trading volume was 152x its historical average while Yes rose 28.9%, providing strong market confirmation.

$1,221 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Volume spike drives large Yes bet

A substantial fresh Yes position coincided with a 152x volume spike and a 29-point price surge, though the wallet has only a moderate track record.

  • This trader put $3,246 into Yes as the market surged 29 percentage points to 90%.
  • Trading volume reached 152 times its historical average, indicating unusually strong positioning around this outcome.
  • The wallet is profitable by $155,000 over 1,173 resolved bets, but its 58% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.

$3,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Experienced wallets reinforce Yes conviction

Three experienced wallets reinforced a Yes position, including a highly profitable large trader, amid a sharp 19% one-day price rise.

  • Three wallets committed $4,357 to Yes, including two traders adding to existing Yes positions.
  • One wallet with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes at 63¢ while another sold No at an equivalent 66¢ Yes price.
  • Yes has risen 19% in one day and 32% in a week, corroborating the coordinated buying but making the trade less cheap.

$4,357 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xbfe4...9586 Outcome 23134377, $212,760
  2. 0x0761...ad5c Outcome 23134377, $130,000
  3. 0x5579...1a7a Outcome 23134377, $70,000
  4. 0xa9a6...4fcf Outcome 23134377, $60,000 (83% win rate)
  5. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 23134377, $57,781 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x76ce...f48b Outcome 23134377, $44,000
  7. 0x5b8d...a1ae Outcome 23134377, $20,000
  8. 0x10cc...42e6 Outcome 23134377, $15,000
  9. 0x524d...4495 Outcome 23134377, $14,667 (80% win rate)
  10. 0x0ac6...2d11 Outcome 23134377, $14,000

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US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

ResolvedUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?$8,825 tracked3 signalsIranUS-IranPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
60¢
19¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

58d ago

$1,221 on Yes at 89¢

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

58d ago

$3,246 on Yes at 88¢

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

58d ago

$4,357 on Yes at 63¢

Related Theses