Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
This prediction market asks whether the US ceasefire against Iran will continue through August 31, 2026. It resolves to “No” if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves to “Yes.” PolySpotter tracks $1,559 in smart money and one signal, including recent Yes buying activity.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,673.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
94% win-rate sharp buys Yes
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $1,559 purchase of Yes at 88%.
- This bettor has won 94% of 1,864 resolved positions and is up $880,219 lifetime.
- The trader’s results imply a large edge over the roughly 60% average odds paid historically.
- A fresh $1,559 Yes position follows a 33.5-point one-day market rise, reinforcing strong bullish momentum.
$1,559 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Coordinated Yes buying with a sharp trader
Three wallets added $13.1K to Yes during a 352x volume spike, including a serial trader with a 78% win rate and substantial profits.
- Three wallets bought Yes for $13,114 during a volume spike 352 times the historical average.
- One participant has won 78% of 106 resolved trades and is up $58,596.
- All three wallets are adding to existing Yes positions around 85–86¢, signaling reinforced conviction rather than a one-off entry.
$13,114 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x401e...6fc9 — Yes, $32,698 (53% win rate)
- 0x3801...cbe8 — No, $27,462 (55% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $26,900 (73% win rate)
- 0xeb22...808a — No, $25,000 (34% win rate)
- 0xbf96...9942 — Yes, $24,967 (79% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — No, $21,556 (52% win rate)
- 0xc3db...0f98 — No, $13,700 (45% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $10,227 (56% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $10,000 (61% win rate)
- 0x2d99...4ca3 — Yes, $10,000 (89% win rate)
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