Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?

This prediction market tracks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through October 31, 2026. It resolves to “No” if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by the deadline; otherwise, it resolves to “Yes.” PolySpotter is tracking $8,258 in smart money and a recent three-wallet “No” conviction cluster.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,258.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Three-wallet No conviction cluster

Three wallets coordinated $8,258 in No buys at 32–77¢, including a 74% winner, while moving the market sharply to near certainty.

  • Three wallets committed $8,258 to No, with the largest $4,500 buy entering at just 32¢.
  • One participant has won 74% of 818 resolved trades and is adding to an existing No position.
  • The coordinated buying coincided with a 44-point move in No’s price, though the market now shows No at 100%.

$8,258 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a26...1851 Outcome 50657418, $7,229 (79% win rate)
  2. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 50657418, $6,975
  3. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 50657418, $3,002 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xfd2b...9ff9 Outcome 50657418, $1,583 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xeba0...4586 Outcome 50657418, $1,500
  6. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 50657418, $1,392
  7. 0x9b26...9295 Outcome 50657418, $1,200
  8. 0xb48b...04eb Outcome 50657418, $997 (61% win rate)
  9. 0x215a...254c Outcome 50657418, $935
  10. 0x0c97...1b68 Outcome 50657418, $856 (66% win rate)

US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?

39dUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$8,258 tracked1 signalIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?

22d ago

$8,258 on No at 50¢