Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through November 22, 2026. It resolves No if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time; otherwise, it resolves Yes. Current odds were not included in the supplied market metadata.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,769.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor positioning across four markets

A highly profitable bettor with a strong 155-market track record is buying Yes while holding a substantial cross-market position on the same event.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 155 resolved trades and is up $285,325 lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 40¢ and have $36,487 positioned across four markets tied to this event.

$4,769 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $40,016 (47% win rate)
  2. 0xcf19...6402 — No, $23,290 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $11,851 (77% win rate)
  4. 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $11,059 (48% win rate)
  5. 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $4,145 (68% win rate)
  6. 0xc46d...a968 — No, $3,458 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x3403...9906 — No, $3,178
  8. 0xd950...ad1b — No, $2,501 (50% win rate)
  9. 0x8204...56ea — No, $2,000 (50% win rate)
  10. 0xc301...66aa — No, $1,877 (70% win rate)

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$4,769 tracked1 signalIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
48¢
No
52¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
64¢
57¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

2026-11-01 06:00 UTC

$4,769 on Yes at 40¢

40¢→48¢↑8¢

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