Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through Nov. 4, 2026. It resolves Yes if no qualifying US-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacts Iran by 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time; current odds were not included in the supplied metadata.

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,314.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader, 82% wins

A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate across 283 resolved positions is making a fresh $1,604 Yes bet.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 283 resolved positions and is up $107,510.
  • They have traded across 38 events and are buying Yes at 88¢.

$1,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp with five-market event positioning

A highly profitable bettor with 77% wins across 158 resolved positions is making a $3,710 Yes bet and has positioned across five markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 77% of 158 resolved positions and is up $297,573.
  • They placed a $3,710 Yes bet and have traded five markets tied to this event, including four flagged in prior runs.

$3,710 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf958...238c — No, $18,393
  2. 0xbcfe...ee58 — Yes, $17,844 (80% win rate)
  3. 0xc301...66aa — No, $13,397 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $12,327 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xebc2...89d0 — No, $11,899
  6. 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $11,616 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x1359...092e — Yes, $11,394 (83% win rate)
  8. 0x3fd0...0022 — Yes, $10,371 (83% win rate)
  9. 0xf7b7...e490 — No, $9,966 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x745c...0f2d — No, $7,143

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US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$5,314 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes
Yes
93¢
No
8¢

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”
96¢
84¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

2026-11-01 10:36 UTC

$1,604 on Yes at 88¢

88¢→93¢↑5¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

2026-11-01 07:30 UTC

$3,710 on Yes at 86¢

86¢→93¢↑7¢

Related Theses