Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,109.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial existing Yes position amid an 11.8x volume spike, though the entry is near current market odds.
- This trader is up $592,000 across 947 resolved bets and has placed $25,448 across five markets in this event.
- They added $5,885 to an already-large Yes position as market volume spiked to 11.8 times its historical average.
- The trade was made at 88¢, close to the current 87¢ market price.
$2,976 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial existing Yes position amid an 11.8x volume spike, though the entry is near current market odds.
- This trader is up $592,000 across 947 resolved bets and has placed $25,448 across five markets in this event.
- They added $5,885 to an already-large Yes position as market volume spiked to 11.8 times its historical average.
- The trade was made at 88¢, close to the current 87¢ market price.
$5,885 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a strong reported edge added $5.5K to Yes as market volume spiked, despite already holding a substantial position.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved positions and is up $128K on $634K invested.
- They added $5,514 to Yes at 83¢ while already holding $6,614 in the same outcome.
- Trading activity was 11.8 times the market’s historical average during the scan window.
$5,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Three-wallet No-side flow
Three wallets sold Yes in a politically significant market and had related cross-market activity, though the trades may be exits and the available track records do not establish a clear edge.
- Three wallets sold Yes for $4,848 total, equivalent to buying No around 33–35¢.
- The wallets also showed activity across related event markets, but the trader with a 94% win rate has a small 35-bet sample and is down overall.
- Treat the signal cautiously: at least one sale closed an existing Yes position, and Yes has since risen from their 65–67¢ sale prices to 72¢.
$4,848 on No
Experienced trader adds to Yes
The trader added to an established Yes position during a 24x volume spike, and the entry at 37¢ is now marked at 65¢, though the wallet’s win rate does not establish a strong edge.
- The $1,186 buy added to an existing $5,405 Yes position, showing continued conviction.
- The entry was 37¢ and the market is now at 65¢; trading volume was 24x its historical average.
$1,186 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Five-wallet funded cluster buying Yes
Five wallets sharing a funder have built coordinated positioning, and this trader is adding to an existing Yes position despite lacking a standout win rate.
- Five wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market activity, with the cluster recurring across prior scans.
- The bettor added $2,700 to an existing Yes position at 88¢; the market is currently at 86¢.
- The wallet has a positive lifetime P&L, though its 45% win rate is not strong evidence of a proven edge.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $152,177 (53% win rate)
- 0xda76...0aa2 — No, $135,400 (98% win rate)
- 0x50ea...010f — No, $102,170
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $41,500 (76% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — No, $39,791 (51% win rate)
- 0x91c2...5755 — No, $34,077
- 0xe234...304a — No, $31,374 (66% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — No, $20,400 (44% win rate)
- 0x4923...adfc — No, $20,000
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — No, $19,161 (87% win rate)
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