Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $339,104.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Serial sharp scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
- The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.
$3,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial sharp scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
- The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.
$2,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp serial trader sells Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with a 1,434-position track record sold Yes, while a major volume spike suggests meaningful conviction in No.
- This bettor has won 82% of 1,434 resolved positions and is up $756,293.
- The trader sold Yes at 54¢, equivalent to buying No at 46¢.
- Market volume is running 15.7 times its historical average, reinforcing the directional signal.
$1,238 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$1,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Six-wallet funded Yes cluster
Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
- Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.
$6,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
93% winner scaling into funded No cluster
A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
- The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.
$6,668 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Six-wallet funded Yes cluster
Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
- Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.
$2,575 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 34707224, $263,979 (52% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 34707224, $84,621 (73% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 34707224, $66,593 (76% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 34707224, $44,813 (71% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Outcome 34707224, $22,639 (86% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 34707224, $21,115 (76% win rate)
- 0x7919...72b2 — Outcome 34707224, $20,810 (98% win rate)
- 0x8f42...b88f — Outcome 34707224, $16,005 (59% win rate)
- 0xcb58...0160 — Outcome 34707224, $14,500 (98% win rate)
- 0x8503...abdd — Outcome 34707224, $14,126 (54% win rate)
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Iran deal by mid-June
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SpaceX IPO pricing volatile
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World Cup favorites prevail
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LeBron returns to Cleveland
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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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Falcons win both maps
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Iranian blockade will persist through September
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Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
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