Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $339,104.

Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
  • They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
  • The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.

$3,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 61 resolved trades and is up $73,450 lifetime.
  • They are positioning across three markets in the same event, with $14,775 committed and another $1,402 added to Yes.
  • The trade adds to an existing $15,738 Yes position despite the recent price decline, signaling continued conviction.

$2,742 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$1,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$1,335 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Sharp serial trader sells Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with a 1,434-position track record sold Yes, while a major volume spike suggests meaningful conviction in No.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,434 resolved positions and is up $756,293.
  • The trader sold Yes at 54¢, equivalent to buying No at 46¢.
  • Market volume is running 15.7 times its historical average, reinforcing the directional signal.

$1,238 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$1,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Six-wallet funded Yes cluster

Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
  • Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.

$6,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

93% winner scaling into funded No cluster

A highly profitable 93% win-rate trader is adding to a No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 210 resolved trades and earned $138,530 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,326 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $10,999 on the market.
  • The No entry is around 86¢, implying the trader sees roughly 86% resolution probability despite the market’s long time horizon.

$6,668 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Six-wallet funded Yes cluster

Six linked wallets are concentrating on Yes, alongside a substantial existing position and strong weekly market momentum, making this coordinated positioning worth monitoring despite mixed trade management.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,139 into the Yes outcome, signaling coordinated conviction.
  • This wallet already has $22,321 invested in Yes and is adding around 56–57¢, rather than opening a small isolated position.
  • Yes has risen 34.5% over the past week, corroborating the cluster’s direction, though the wallet’s 69% record is not clearly exceptional against its 93¢ average win price.

$2,575 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 34707224, $263,979 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 34707224, $84,621 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 34707224, $66,593 (76% win rate)
  4. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 34707224, $44,813 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x000d...758e Outcome 34707224, $22,639 (86% win rate)
  6. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 34707224, $21,115 (76% win rate)
  7. 0x7919...72b2 Outcome 34707224, $20,810 (98% win rate)
  8. 0x8f42...b88f Outcome 34707224, $16,005 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xcb58...0160 Outcome 34707224, $14,500 (98% win rate)
  10. 0x8503...abdd Outcome 34707224, $14,126 (54% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 5 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

Someone else wins Peru presidency

Covers 3 related markets

SpaceX IPO pricing volatile

Covers 3 related markets

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

LeBron returns to Cleveland

Covers 4 related markets

Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses

Covers 3 related markets

Falcons win both maps

Covers 3 related markets

Iranian blockade will persist through September

Covers 8 related markets

Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

Covers 14 related markets

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

ResolvedUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)$339,104 tracked50 signalsIranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
100¢
87¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$3,828 on Yes at 53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$2,742 on Yes at 53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$1,424 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$1,335 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$4,450 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

34d ago

$1,238 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

35d ago

$1,897 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

35d ago

$6,284 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

35d ago

$6,668 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

36d ago

$2,575 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

36d ago

$8,410 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

37d ago

$5,589 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

37d ago

$2,772 on Yes at 48¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$1,402 on Yes at 53¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$4,523 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$1,325 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$2,774 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$4,897 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$2,327 on Yes at 48¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$2,177 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$11,583 on No at 42¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

39d ago

$5,388 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

39d ago

$4,372 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

39d ago

$2,448 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

40d ago

$3,773 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

38d ago

$150,523 on Yes at 62¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

40d ago

$6,290 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

40d ago

$3,615 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

40d ago

$5,550 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

40d ago

$1,662 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

41d ago

$3,393 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

42d ago

$1,352 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

42d ago

$5,000 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

42d ago

$4,955 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

42d ago

$7,316 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$2,326 on No at 46¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$5,601 on No at 64¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$5,897 on No at 74¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$1,080 on Yes at 22¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$1,345 on No at 85¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

43d ago

$2,000 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

44d ago

$4,552 on No at 74¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

44d ago

$2,000 on No at 86¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

44d ago

$2,142 on No at 85¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

44d ago

$1,556 on Yes at 30¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

44d ago

$4,863 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

45d ago

$3,788 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

45d ago

$5,139 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

46d ago

$6,273 on No at 85¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

46d ago

$4,685 on No at 46¢

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
No US-Iran peace deal
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Someone else wins Peru presidency
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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino …Will Keiko Fujimori win the 20…Will Rafael López Aliaga win t…
SpaceX IPO pricing volatile
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SpaceX IPO closing market cap …SpaceX IPO closing market cap …SpaceX IPO closing market cap …
World Cup favorites prevail
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Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
LeBron returns to Cleveland
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Will LeBron James play for the…Will LeBron James play for the…Will LeBron James play for the…
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Falcons win both maps
Wallet_0x7bc14 trades 3 related markets
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons v…Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Ly…Counter-Strike: Team Falcons v…
Iranian blockade will persist through September
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 8 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 14 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…