Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,402.

Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Thin-market contrarian sharp

A profitable bettor with a 72% win rate made a market-dominating $1.4k buy on No in an extremely thin US-Iran meeting market, taking a sharply contrarian view versus current pricing.

  • This bettor wins 72% of their resolved trades and is profitable overall.
  • Their $1.4k order was 25x the market's 24-hour volume in a market with just $126 of liquidity.
  • They bought No at 74¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes's opposite side before the market moved to imply only 13% No.

$1,402 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2570...f79c Outcome 80713378, $14,688
  2. 0xa757...f01f Outcome 80713378, $9,293
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 80713378, $6,144 (84% win rate)
  4. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 80713378, $5,508
  5. 0x2e5d...2bd6 Outcome 80713378, $5,500
  6. 0x682e...70bd Outcome 80713378, $5,000 (63% win rate)
  7. 0x2d61...1fa7 Outcome 80713378, $3,000 (77% win rate)
  8. 0x2c99...9c3a Outcome 80713378, $2,949
  9. 0xf90f...70c2 Outcome 80713378, $2,330
  10. 0x42f9...c7cd Outcome 80713378, $1,874

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$1,402 tracked1 signalIranKushnerGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpKhameneiWitkoffIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?

45d ago

$1,402 on No at 74¢