Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,814.

Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

75% win-rate event specialist

A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate across 291 resolved markets is adding a sizable position in a geopolitics event after tracking 56 related events, making this a credible thesis worth following despite the rich price.

  • This bettor wins 75% of their trades across 291 resolved markets and is up $184k lifetime
  • They have traded 75 markets across 56 related events, which suggests a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
  • They bought at 90¢ in a liquid market, showing conviction even after a big 1-week move

$2,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

83% win-rate event trader

A proven 83% win-rate trader with over $1.0M deployed across 50 related markets bought into a major volume breakout in a geopolitically news-driven market.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades, with 204 wins and $60k profit.
  • They trade across events at scale — 50 markets and about $1.0M invested — which suggests a repeatable edge.
  • The buy came during a 274x volume spike, and the price has already moved from 80¢ to 84¢.

$4,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp 3-wallet NO cluster

Three wallets, including one with an 88% win rate, coordinated into the bearish side of a geopolitics market just as price snapped sharply lower, suggesting informed conviction worth watching.

  • Three wallets all bet against a US-Iran meeting, with two linked by funding and $5.1k total behind the move.
  • One wallet wins 88% of its resolved bets and is up $660k, while the others have traded over $5.2M combined.
  • They entered around 7¢ to 18¢ implied No before the market moved to 26¢, showing strong early conviction against a fast rally.

$5,113 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 36754863, $31,297 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x2c4c...cb39 Outcome 36754863, $13,353 (62% win rate)
  3. 0xa04d...eecf Outcome 36754863, $12,900 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 36754863, $10,479 (84% win rate)
  5. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 36754863, $7,000 (86% win rate)
  6. 0xed18...6acf Outcome 36754863, $5,609
  7. 0x7a61...af24 Outcome 36754863, $3,025
  8. 0x37aa...b450 Outcome 36754863, $1,700
  9. 0x281b...9428 Outcome 36754863, $1,512
  10. 0x8454...331a Outcome 36754863, $1,014 (93% win rate)

Related Theses

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Covers 7 related markets

US-Iran peace deal imminent

Covers 5 related markets

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$12,814 tracked3 signalsIranKushnerGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpKhameneiWitkoffIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

44d ago

$2,737 on Yes at 90¢

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

45d ago

$4,965 on Yes at 80¢

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

45d ago

$5,113 on No at 14¢

Related Theses