Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,814.
Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
75% win-rate event specialist
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate across 291 resolved markets is adding a sizable position in a geopolitics event after tracking 56 related events, making this a credible thesis worth following despite the rich price.
- This bettor wins 75% of their trades across 291 resolved markets and is up $184k lifetime
- They have traded 75 markets across 56 related events, which suggests a repeatable edge in event-driven markets
- They bought at 90¢ in a liquid market, showing conviction even after a big 1-week move
$2,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
83% win-rate event trader
A proven 83% win-rate trader with over $1.0M deployed across 50 related markets bought into a major volume breakout in a geopolitically news-driven market.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades, with 204 wins and $60k profit.
- They trade across events at scale — 50 markets and about $1.0M invested — which suggests a repeatable edge.
- The buy came during a 274x volume spike, and the price has already moved from 80¢ to 84¢.
$4,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp 3-wallet NO cluster
Three wallets, including one with an 88% win rate, coordinated into the bearish side of a geopolitics market just as price snapped sharply lower, suggesting informed conviction worth watching.
- Three wallets all bet against a US-Iran meeting, with two linked by funding and $5.1k total behind the move.
- One wallet wins 88% of its resolved bets and is up $660k, while the others have traded over $5.2M combined.
- They entered around 7¢ to 18¢ implied No before the market moved to 26¢, showing strong early conviction against a fast rally.
$5,113 on No
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 36754863, $31,297 (82% win rate)
- 0x2c4c...cb39 — Outcome 36754863, $13,353 (62% win rate)
- 0xa04d...eecf — Outcome 36754863, $12,900 (73% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 36754863, $10,479 (84% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 36754863, $7,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xed18...6acf — Outcome 36754863, $5,609
- 0x7a61...af24 — Outcome 36754863, $3,025
- 0x37aa...b450 — Outcome 36754863, $1,700
- 0x281b...9428 — Outcome 36754863, $1,512
- 0x8454...331a — Outcome 36754863, $1,014 (93% win rate)
Related Theses
US-Iran peace deal imminent
Covers 5 related markets
