US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026. It resolves Yes only if there is a direct, deliberate meeting between authorized officials acting in an official diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial exchanges do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking $4,965 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent sharp 3-wallet NO cluster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,077.

Categories: Iran, Kushner, Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Khamenei, Witkoff, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

83% win-rate event trader

A proven 83% win-rate trader with over $1.0M deployed across 50 related markets bought into a major volume breakout in a geopolitically news-driven market.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades, with 204 wins and $60k profit.
  • They trade across events at scale — 50 markets and about $1.0M invested — which suggests a repeatable edge.
  • The buy came during a 274x volume spike, and the price has already moved from 80¢ to 84¢.

$4,965 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp 3-wallet NO cluster

Three wallets, including one with an 88% win rate, coordinated into the bearish side of a geopolitics market just as price snapped sharply lower, suggesting informed conviction worth watching.

  • Three wallets all bet against a US-Iran meeting, with two linked by funding and $5.1k total behind the move.
  • One wallet wins 88% of its resolved bets and is up $660k, while the others have traded over $5.2M combined.
  • They entered around 7¢ to 18¢ implied No before the market moved to 26¢, showing strong early conviction against a fast rally.

$5,113 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b No, $31,297 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xa9e6...1dc2 Yes, $21,915 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x323a...876f No, $19,353 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xa04d...eecf No, $12,900 (73% win rate)
  5. 0xff80...9b4d Yes, $11,700 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x15fb...252d Yes, $8,767 (56% win rate)
  7. 0x04b9...79e0 Yes, $8,100
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $6,579 (88% win rate)
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $6,169 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $6,000 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

21d$10,077 tracked2 signalsIranKushnerGeopoliticsPoliticsTrumpKhameneiWitkoffIran Ceasefire
Yes
80¢
No
21¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
56¢
16¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

54m ago

$4,965 on Yes at 80¢

80¢80¢

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

3h ago

$5,113 on No at 14¢

14¢21¢7¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Meeting by April 2026 Odds | Polymarket | PolySpotter