Part of: US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran and the United States will agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. It resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement explicitly ends or permanently ceases U.S.-Iran military hostilities before that visit; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $5,319 in smart money and 1 recent signal, including a profitable trio buying YES.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal before Donald Trump visits China. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a qualifying peace deal nor a Trump visit to China occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for whether a peace deal is achieved will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for Trump visiting China will be official information from government of the United States of America and official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,319.
Categories: China, Xi, Iran, Geopolitics, Trump, Politics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable trio buying YES
Three wallets are aligned on Yes, including two highly profitable bettors with strong historical win rates, though sizing is modest relative to market volume.
- Two strong bettors are in this cluster: one wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $1.8M, while another wins 85% and is up $416K.
- Three wallets all bought Yes within 35 minutes, putting $5.3K behind the same geopolitical thesis.
- Yes is now around 20¢, below the cluster’s roughly 23¢ average entry.
$5,319 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xeed5...1a33 — No, $42,616 (67% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $33,570 (39% win rate)
- 0x8c2f...1a88 — Yes, $23,646 (55% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $19,229 (85% win rate)
- 0x74bf...2a6e — No, $15,930 (70% win rate)
- 0xe54d...fea1 — No, $11,111 (64% win rate)
- 0xc984...37ca — No, $6,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $5,400 (76% win rate)
- 0xa47c...8e87 — No, $4,174
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $4,161 (51% win rate)
