Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,263.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet fading rally

Profitable new repeat bettor is fading a sharp Yes rally by selling Yes at 69¢, equivalent to buying No at 31¢.

  • This new wallet is already up $5.4K and has had 38 flagged large-bet alerts totaling $112K.
  • The trade fades a big move: Yes is up 27.5 points in the last day, while this bettor is effectively buying No at 31¢.
  • Early record is perfect so far, with 5 wins and 0 losses on resolved markets.

$1,443 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable new repeat whale

New repeat whale wallet with early profits is buying Yes into strong upward momentum on a data-driven shipping market.

  • This 27-day-old wallet has already had 34 large-bet flags totaling $106K and is up $5.4K so far.
  • The wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets, though the track record is still early.
  • Yes has surged 35.5 percentage points in the last day, and this trade adds at 69¢ into that momentum.

$1,792 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

New repeat wallet buying NO

A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is adding to a No thesis as the market has moved sharply in that direction.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $14.5K.
  • The wallet is up about $1K on its only resolved bet so far, despite a very short history.
  • They bought No at 59¢, and the market has already moved to 64¢ amid a 21-point drop in Yes odds today.

$1,028 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6dce...4490 Outcome 89954522, $7,000 (20% win rate)
  2. 0xc040...beac Outcome 89954522, $5,437 (46% win rate)
  3. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 89954522, $4,340 (93% win rate)
  4. 0x5a77...f859 Outcome 89954522, $3,043
  5. 0x33dc...bb81 Outcome 89954522, $2,892 (75% win rate)
  6. 0xdaca...0d85 Outcome 89954522, $2,515
  7. 0xb10a...ab03 Outcome 89954522, $2,200 (34% win rate)
  8. 0x7d3f...fec2 Outcome 89954522, $2,178 (88% win rate)
  9. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 89954522, $2,000 (42% win rate)
  10. 0x5e73...6697 Outcome 89954522, $1,761 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

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No early June deal

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Iran deal before June ends

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Trump makes selective Iran concessions

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Musk posts 40 to 64

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Musk avoids those tweet ranges

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Musk tweets stay moderate

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Iran airspace closes briefly

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Musk tweets 280 to 299

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Drake sells 500k-550k debut

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Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$4,263 tracked3 signalsEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

39d ago

$1,443 on No at 31¢

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

39d ago

$1,792 on Yes at 69¢

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

40d ago

$1,028 on No at 59¢

Related Theses