Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,263.
Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet fading rally
Profitable new repeat bettor is fading a sharp Yes rally by selling Yes at 69¢, equivalent to buying No at 31¢.
- This new wallet is already up $5.4K and has had 38 flagged large-bet alerts totaling $112K.
- The trade fades a big move: Yes is up 27.5 points in the last day, while this bettor is effectively buying No at 31¢.
- Early record is perfect so far, with 5 wins and 0 losses on resolved markets.
$1,443 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable new repeat whale
New repeat whale wallet with early profits is buying Yes into strong upward momentum on a data-driven shipping market.
- This 27-day-old wallet has already had 34 large-bet flags totaling $106K and is up $5.4K so far.
- The wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets, though the track record is still early.
- Yes has surged 35.5 percentage points in the last day, and this trade adds at 69¢ into that momentum.
$1,792 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
New repeat wallet buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is adding to a No thesis as the market has moved sharply in that direction.
- This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $14.5K.
- The wallet is up about $1K on its only resolved bet so far, despite a very short history.
- They bought No at 59¢, and the market has already moved to 64¢ amid a 21-point drop in Yes odds today.
$1,028 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x6dce...4490 — Outcome 89954522, $7,000 (20% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 89954522, $5,437 (50% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Outcome 89954522, $4,340 (92% win rate)
- 0x5a77...f859 — Outcome 89954522, $3,043
- 0xdaca...0d85 — Outcome 89954522, $2,515
- 0xb10a...ab03 — Outcome 89954522, $2,200 (34% win rate)
- 0x7d3f...fec2 — Outcome 89954522, $2,178 (88% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 89954522, $2,000 (42% win rate)
- 0x5e73...6697 — Outcome 89954522, $1,761 (69% win rate)
- 0x54a7...881b — Outcome 89954522, $1,634 (93% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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Israel closes airspace in August
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No early June deal
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Iran blockade ends August 23–31
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Iran deal before June ends
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Iran charges Hormuz fees in September
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US-Iran talks will be extended
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Iran will stay in negotiations
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Bab el-Mandeb stays open through August
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