Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch reports at least 40 Strait of Hormuz ship transit calls on any single day from market creation through July 31, 2026. It covers finalized “Arrivals of Ships” data for container, dry bulk, Ro-Ro, general cargo, and tanker ships, with PolySpotter tracking $6,844 in smart money and a recent profitable trader signal on No.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,844.
Categories: Trump, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys NO
Profitable high-volume serial trader placed a meaningful contrarian No bet on a data-driven shipping market, with the trade exceeding flagged 24h volume.
- This trader is up about $770k across 220 resolved markets.
- They put $6.8k on No, more than the market’s flagged 24h volume at the time.
- Entry at 18¢ is a contrarian bet against the current 84% Yes consensus.
$6,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 11438188, $71,638 (57% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 11438188, $12,227 (70% win rate)
- 0x21f7...e19f — Outcome 11438188, $11,086 (50% win rate)
- 0xb760...ccd7 — Outcome 11438188, $7,531 (53% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 11438188, $7,192
- 0xaa99...dbbf — Outcome 11438188, $3,500 (62% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 11438188, $3,500
- 0x78ec...72ce — Outcome 11438188, $3,000
- 0x6770...45fb — Outcome 11438188, $1,694 (59% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 11438188, $1,594 (69% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal after July
Covers 11 related markets
US-Iran meeting around June 20
Covers 11 related markets
US-Iran deal announced soon
Covers 8 related markets
Trump refuses Iran concessions
Covers 2 related markets
Crude oil tops $175 by June
Covers 4 related markets
I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
Covers 2 related markets
Iran ceasefire survives late May
Covers 5 related markets
