Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch reports at least 40 Strait of Hormuz ship transit calls on any single day from market creation through July 31, 2026. It covers finalized “Arrivals of Ships” data for container, dry bulk, Ro-Ro, general cargo, and tanker ships, with PolySpotter tracking $6,844 in smart money and a recent profitable trader signal on No.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,844.

Categories: Trump, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys NO

Profitable high-volume serial trader placed a meaningful contrarian No bet on a data-driven shipping market, with the trade exceeding flagged 24h volume.

  • This trader is up about $770k across 220 resolved markets.
  • They put $6.8k on No, more than the market’s flagged 24h volume at the time.
  • Entry at 18¢ is a contrarian bet against the current 84% Yes consensus.

$6,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 11438188, $71,638 (57% win rate)
  2. 0x0845...6b6f Outcome 11438188, $12,227 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x21f7...e19f Outcome 11438188, $11,086 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xb760...ccd7 Outcome 11438188, $7,531 (53% win rate)
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 11438188, $7,192
  6. 0xaa99...dbbf Outcome 11438188, $3,500 (62% win rate)
  7. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 11438188, $3,500
  8. 0x78ec...72ce Outcome 11438188, $3,000
  9. 0x6770...45fb Outcome 11438188, $1,694 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xe234...304a Outcome 11438188, $1,594 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal after July

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US-Iran meeting around June 20

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US-Iran deal announced soon

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Trump refuses Iran concessions

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Crude oil tops $175 by June

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I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.

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Iran ceasefire survives late May

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Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

12dWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?$6,844 tracked1 signalTrumpHormuzIranStrait of HormuzOilGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

15d ago

$6,844 on No at 18¢

Related Theses