Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
4 signals across 3 markets · $12,267 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether IMF Portwatch reports at least 60 finalized Strait of Hormuz ship transit calls on any single day by July 31, 2026. The market is tied to geopolitical and oil-shipping risk, with PolySpotter currently flagging a repeat whale buying NO.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- New repeat whale buying NO
A 3-day-old wallet with five repeat large-bet flags is taking a fresh $2.9k NO position in a relatively small shipping market.
$2,860Score: 5.5 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a relatively thin shipping market, with a large sample track record and meaningful prior profits.
$1,122Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 4.0 - 98% winner buying NO
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making an $8.6k No bet while also positioning across related markets, with recent price action strongly favoring No.
$1,441Wallet win rate: 97%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial trader buys NO
Profitable high-volume serial trader placed a meaningful contrarian No bet on a data-driven shipping market, with the trade exceeding flagged 24h volume.
$6,844Wallet win rate: 58%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x74471a…a16d$6,844 · 1 market · 1 alert · 58% wins
- 0xe4de86…c949$2,860 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x49e940…8f85$1,441 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,122 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in one day by July 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect trader expectations that IMF Portwatch will report 60 or more qualifying ship transit calls on at least one day before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,860 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal that a repeat whale is buying NO.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
It resolves YES if IMF Portwatch finalizes a daily Strait of Hormuz “Arrivals of Ships” count at or above 60 for any date in the market window. If no finalized day reaches that level by July 31, 2026, it resolves NO.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz ship transits?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for oil and cargo shipping, so transit levels can become a proxy for geopolitical risk, Iran-related tensions, and disruptions to global energy flows.