Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether IMF PortWatch will report at least 60 ship arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before April 30, 2026. The market covers container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker traffic, and resolves Yes if the daily transit count reaches 60 or more at least once during the window. Traders watch this market as a real-time signal on Hormuz shipping flows, oil-linked geopolitics, and U.S.-Iran tensions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

94% win-rate bettor

A bettor with an exceptional 94% win rate and 646 resolved positions just made a meaningful $2,000 No bet that accounted for 62% of recent volume in this market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 646 resolved markets and is up $68k lifetime
  • Their $2,000 bet made up 62% of recent volume, showing real conviction in a quieter market
  • They bought No at 72¢ even after the market had already moved 12 points lower today

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8495...b6e8 Yes, $8,731 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xd3ec...6603 No, $3,103 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x5fdf...28a2 No, $2,778 (94% win rate)
  4. 0x3732...43ac Yes, $2,386 (50% win rate)
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $2,320 (87% win rate)
  6. 0x9d73...216b No, $2,000 (77% win rate)
  7. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $2,000 (58% win rate)
  8. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $2,000 (57% win rate)
  9. 0x2aac...dfad No, $1,820
  10. 0x0562...9d66 No, $1,632 (42% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

12d$2,000 tracked1 signalEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz
Yes
67¢
No
34¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
74¢
44¢
13¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

20h ago

$2,000 on No at 72¢

72¢34¢38¢

Related Theses

60 Ships Through Hormuz by Apr 30? Polymarket Odds | PolySpotter