Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,990.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor buying NO

A profitable sharp bettor with a 76% win rate and strong historical edge is taking a sizable No position across multiple related Hormuz markets, making this worth surfacing despite only one trade here.

  • This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up about $167k across 45 resolved markets
  • They beat the odds by a wide margin, winning at average entry prices near 36¢
  • They are betting across 3 related Hormuz markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt

$2,990 on No | Wallet win rate: 23%

94% win-rate bettor

A bettor with an exceptional 94% win rate and 646 resolved positions just made a meaningful $2,000 No bet that accounted for 62% of recent volume in this market.

  • This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 646 resolved markets and is up $68k lifetime
  • Their $2,000 bet made up 62% of recent volume, showing real conviction in a quieter market
  • They bought No at 72¢ even after the market had already moved 12 points lower today

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8495...b6e8 Outcome 51510386, $15,533 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 51510386, $9,388 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xea79...a9cc Outcome 73799118, $4,211 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x5160...b803 Outcome 51510386, $3,500
  5. 0x68c2...1711 Outcome 51510386, $3,436 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x8af9...c3e8 Outcome 51510386, $2,628
  7. 0x4a79...304f Outcome 51510386, $1,700
  8. 0xc902...cd14 Outcome 51510386, $1,494 (54% win rate)
  9. 0x6c92...1322 Outcome 51510386, $1,451 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x8408...5dca Outcome 51510386, $1,136

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Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?$4,990 tracked2 signalsEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

41d ago

$2,990 on No at 65¢

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

46d ago

$2,000 on No at 72¢

Related Theses