Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,755.
Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Positive-P&L cross-market bettor is buying Yes across related Strait of Hormuz transit thresholds, a plausible informed-shipping/geopolitics thesis despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 74% of 160 resolved bets and is up $32k lifetime.
- They have put $8.8k across related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader Yes thesis.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes over the last day, with odds up about 18 points.
$1,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 77914176, $22,956 (76% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 77914176, $6,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xe467...437f — Outcome 77914176, $5,323
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 77914176, $2,991 (52% win rate)
- 0x21f7...e19f — Outcome 77914176, $2,000 (52% win rate)
- 0x4457...f3e2 — Outcome 77914176, $1,000 (30% win rate)
- 0xa9ed...0aed — Outcome 77914176, $1,000
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 77914176, $656 (52% win rate)
- 0x1e76...7b84 — Outcome 77914176, $635
- 0x9f32...a15c — Outcome 77914176, $600
Related Theses
SpaceX IPO under $2.2T
Covers 5 related markets
Israel stays in Lebanon
Covers 1 related market
Brazil Germany or Portugal wins
Covers 3 related markets
Israel avoids Nabatieh incursion
Covers 1 related market
Iran commits to Hormuz restraint
Covers 1 related market
Claude 5 launches in June
Covers 3 related markets
Claude Mythos misses 2026 deadline
Covers 1 related market
Israel closes airspace by June
Covers 1 related market
SpaceX IPO raises $70-80B
Covers 1 related market
SpaceX misses $1.4T valuation
Covers 1 related market
