Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,755.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Positive-P&L cross-market bettor is buying Yes across related Strait of Hormuz transit thresholds, a plausible informed-shipping/geopolitics thesis despite modest trade size.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 160 resolved bets and is up $32k lifetime.
  • They have put $8.8k across related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader Yes thesis.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes over the last day, with odds up about 18 points.

$1,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 77914176, $22,956 (76% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 77914176, $6,000 (73% win rate)
  3. 0xe467...437f Outcome 77914176, $5,323
  4. 0xc040...beac Outcome 77914176, $2,991 (52% win rate)
  5. 0x21f7...e19f Outcome 77914176, $2,000 (52% win rate)
  6. 0x4457...f3e2 Outcome 77914176, $1,000 (30% win rate)
  7. 0xa9ed...0aed Outcome 77914176, $1,000
  8. 0x0042...321e Outcome 77914176, $656 (52% win rate)
  9. 0x1e76...7b84 Outcome 77914176, $635
  10. 0x9f32...a15c Outcome 77914176, $600

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Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1,755 tracked1 signalEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

92d ago

$1,755 on Yes at 33¢

Related Theses