Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 60 daily “Arrivals of Ships” through the Strait of Hormuz on any date before May 31, 2026. It covers major commercial vessel types including tankers, dry bulk, container, general cargo, and roll-on/roll-off ships, and resolves based only on IMF Portwatch data. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,755 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,755.
Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
Positive-P&L cross-market bettor is buying Yes across related Strait of Hormuz transit thresholds, a plausible informed-shipping/geopolitics thesis despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 74% of 160 resolved bets and is up $32k lifetime.
- They have put $8.8k across related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader Yes thesis.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes over the last day, with odds up about 18 points.
$1,755 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $11,229 (57% win rate)
- 0xa503...2342 — No, $8,000 (77% win rate)
- 0xe467...437f — Yes, $5,323
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $4,800 (100% win rate)
- 0x2d61...1fa7 — Yes, $4,212 (77% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $4,153 (47% win rate)
- 0x7661...208a — No, $2,000 (68% win rate)
- 0x21f7...e19f — Yes, $2,000 (46% win rate)
- 0x6bab...0fe5 — No, $1,940 (74% win rate)
- 0x389a...397d — No, $1,366 (40% win rate)
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SpaceX IPO below $2.4T
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Hormuz traffic reaches 60, not 80
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