Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,854.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market sharp

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 67% win rate sold No here, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 25¢ on a reasonably sized position.

  • This bettor has won 855 of 1,277 resolved trades and is up $213.6k overall
  • They trade across 139 events and 315 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Their sell of No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢, close to the current 22¢ ask

$1,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

New whale in shipping market

A 13-day-old wallet is making another large, concentrated bet in a fast-moving geopolitics-linked shipping market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited track record.

  • A 13-day-old wallet just put $7.1k into Yes and has already been flagged twice for large early bets
  • This single trade was 60% of the market's 24-hour volume in a market with a wide 11¢ spread, showing real conviction
  • The market has surged 43 points in a day, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum on a plausible information-driven topic

$7,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3298...355e Outcome 26543955, $10,658 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x353c...2af5 Outcome 48937138, $7,650 (68% win rate)
  3. 0x5160...b803 Outcome 26543955, $4,500
  4. 0x0a6d...1d0a Outcome 26543955, $3,184
  5. 0x0042...321e Outcome 26543955, $2,577 (45% win rate)
  6. 0x2baa...647a Outcome 26543955, $2,400
  7. 0xd2cc...b624 Outcome 26543955, $2,325
  8. 0x6cf9...cffd Outcome 26543955, $2,216 (56% win rate)
  9. 0xb8e9...f1bc Outcome 26543955, $2,148
  10. 0x2764...2827 Outcome 26543955, $1,873

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Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?$8,854 tracked2 signalsEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

36d ago

$1,751 on Yes at 25¢

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

45d ago

$7,103 on Yes at 67¢

Related Theses