Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,854.
Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market sharp
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 67% win rate sold No here, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 25¢ on a reasonably sized position.
- This bettor has won 855 of 1,277 resolved trades and is up $213.6k overall
- They trade across 139 events and 315 markets, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Their sell of No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 25¢, close to the current 22¢ ask
$1,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
New whale in shipping market
A 13-day-old wallet is making another large, concentrated bet in a fast-moving geopolitics-linked shipping market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited track record.
- A 13-day-old wallet just put $7.1k into Yes and has already been flagged twice for large early bets
- This single trade was 60% of the market's 24-hour volume in a market with a wide 11¢ spread, showing real conviction
- The market has surged 43 points in a day, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum on a plausible information-driven topic
$7,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x3298...355e — Outcome 26543955, $10,658 (100% win rate)
- 0x353c...2af5 — Outcome 48937138, $7,650 (68% win rate)
- 0x5160...b803 — Outcome 26543955, $4,500
- 0x0a6d...1d0a — Outcome 26543955, $3,184
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 26543955, $2,577 (45% win rate)
- 0x2baa...647a — Outcome 26543955, $2,400
- 0xd2cc...b624 — Outcome 26543955, $2,325
- 0x6cf9...cffd — Outcome 26543955, $2,216 (56% win rate)
- 0xb8e9...f1bc — Outcome 26543955, $2,148
- 0x2764...2827 — Outcome 26543955, $1,873
