Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 80 finalized Strait of Hormuz transit calls on any single day by July 31, 2026. The outcome is based on daily “Arrivals of Ships” data covering container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker ships, with only ships reported by IMF Portwatch counted. PolySpotter is tracking $1,122 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,122.

Categories: Trump, Hormuz, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a relatively thin shipping market, with a large sample track record and meaningful prior profits.

  • This bettor wins 69% of resolved trades and is up $221k lifetime across 1,041 bets.
  • They have traded 74 markets across 49 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $1.1k No buy is meaningful in a market with only $6.5k traded today.

$1,122 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $19,926 (47% win rate)
  2. 0xdb45...b5d6 Yes, $4,994 (38% win rate)
  3. 0xf5e8...9fbd Yes, $3,450
  4. 0x9ca1...13b5 Yes, $3,000 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x5e62...c577 Yes, $2,300
  6. 0x6630...2f4e No, $1,889
  7. 0x8df9...468c Yes, $1,536 (44% win rate)
  8. 0xb17d...59ae Yes, $1,521 (91% win rate)
  9. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $1,443 (64% win rate)
  10. 0xa108...abd3 No, $1,123 (94% win rate)

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Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

12dWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?$1,122 tracked1 signalTrumpHormuzIranStrait of HormuzOilGeopolitics
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
101¢
98¢
95¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

18d ago

$1,122 on No at 72¢

72¢99¢27¢

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