Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,000.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable 3-hour new whale

A 3-hour-old wallet with early profits made a meaningful $3k Yes bet on a niche shipping-data market with recent upward momentum.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but is already up $1,020 across 4 resolved bets.
  • It put $3,000 on Yes at 23¢, a large bet relative to the market’s $3,447 liquidity.
  • Yes is up 12 points in the last day, suggesting momentum behind the same thesis.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $27,685 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x8f2f...b226 Yes, $22,080 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xe4f6...d00e Yes, $13,049 (75% win rate)
  4. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $5,515 (57% win rate)
  5. 0xa503...2342 No, $5,000
  6. 0xcaab...24dd No, $2,987 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x9d73...216b No, $2,100 (76% win rate)
  8. 0x7ee7...17b0 Yes, $2,000 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x1f05...8b8b No, $1,913 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x0026...aef7 No, $1,899 (88% win rate)

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

24d$3,000 tracked1 signalEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump
Yes
18¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
94¢
71¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

1h ago

$3,000 on Yes at 23¢

23¢18¢5¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | PolySpotter