Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,049.
Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor buying breakout
A profitable, high-volume wallet bought into a sharp Yes breakout after the market moved far beyond its prior range.
- This bettor has 657 resolved trades and is up about $92K lifetime.
- Yes has surged 43 points in the last day and broke well above its prior 28–41¢ range.
- Entry at 73¢ means the bettor is still buying after a major momentum move.
$1,092 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
New wallet flips to NO
A 12-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits has flipped from a big Yes position into No after the market's sharp Yes rally.
- This 12-day-old wallet has already made $5.8k on $27k invested and has now been flagged 4 times for large bets.
- The bettor previously held a large Yes position from 14¢, closed it, and is now buying No around 59¢.
- The market has rallied hard toward Yes this week, so this is a clear contrarian fade after a 35-point move.
$2,343 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable cross-market regular
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying $6k of No on the Claude Mythos release market, backed by a 75-market history and $120k lifetime profit.
- This bettor is up about $120k across 75 resolved markets.
- They regularly trade related markets, with activity across 52 events and over $1.1M staked.
- A $6k No buy at 72¢ suggests conviction that a June 15 release is unlikely.
$6,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $5k of No after a sharp Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian thesis on the Mythos release timing.
- This bettor is up $120k lifetime across 75 resolved markets.
- They have traded 52 related-event setups, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $5k No buy comes after Yes jumped 26% this week, making it a notable contrarian position.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is putting $10k on No and has $17k positioned across this event.
- This bettor is up $120k lifetime across 75 resolved markets with $1.7M invested.
- They have traded 52 related-event setups before, making this a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- The $10k No buy is meaningful versus $16.6k in market liquidity and fades the recent Yes rally.
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
93% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5.2k of No on an AI release market as part of a cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $9.7k lifetime.
- They put $5.2k on No here, with $8.2k positioned across related markets.
- The bet is contrarian to the recent Yes rally, which is up 23 points over the past week.
$5,166 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $139K lifetime P&L is buying No on the Claude Mythos release market as part of a broader event position.
- This bettor is up $139K lifetime and has won 61% of 72 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.17M deployed across 52 events.
- This $2K buy on No adds to a $9K broader position around the same event.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on the Mythos release market, with broader event positioning and strong recent Yes momentum.
- This trader is up $263K lifetime across 1,220 resolved bets.
- They have traded 126 markets across 60 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 64¢ is the same as buying Yes at 36¢, while Yes is already up 23 points this week.
$2,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is taking the bullish side on a market already moving upward.
- This bettor has won 68% of 953 resolved bets and is up $151k lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢, after Yes has moved up 9 points in the last day.
$1,059 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader flipped into a $1.7k No position at 88¢ on a near-deadline AI release market.
- This bettor is up $190k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved trades.
- They have traded 118 markets across 57 related events, suggesting this is part of a recurring research-driven strategy.
- They flipped from a small prior Yes position into a larger $1.7k No bet at 88¢.
$1,679 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0x4f39...7609 — Outcome 68805476, $11,410
- 0x93d5...0a45 — Outcome 68805476, $10,000 (11% win rate)
- 0xb82e...5278 — Outcome 68805476, $9,033
- 0x81aa...c075 — Outcome 68805476, $7,034 (93% win rate)
- 0xd286...2322 — Outcome 68805476, $6,569 (96% win rate)
- 0x9898...0a7d — Outcome 68805476, $5,500
- 0x7578...6426 — Outcome 68805476, $5,322 (84% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 68805476, $5,199
- 0x0c77...f1d6 — Outcome 68805476, $3,385
- 0xe57a...709d — Outcome 68805476, $2,850
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