This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $666k lifetime. They have a large 1,205-bet track record, so the wallet’s history is the main signal. Entry at 31¢ implies they see meaningful upside despite the market falling 9% today.

Part of: Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,232.

Categories: World, Elections, Global Elections, Politics, Colombia Election, Colombia

Notable Trades

Profitable serial election trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes into a major volume spike and sharp price move on a liquid Colombian election market.

This bettor has 882 resolved trades and is up $782K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 97 events, with $1.1M flagged in similar positioning.
The market saw a 24.6x volume spike and Yes jumped 18 points, suggesting strong momentum behind the trade.

$2,813 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes after a major momentum move in a liquid Colombian election market.

This bettor is up $782k lifetime across 882 resolved trades.
They have traded 144 markets across 97 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process.
Bought Yes at 82¢ before it moved to 86¢, with the market up 64 points today.

$2,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Six-wallet Yes momentum cluster

Coordinated one-sided buying from 6 wallets, a 36x volume spike, and a 35-point price move make this a notable momentum trade in a major political market.

Six wallets bought the same side for $14.3K as market volume spiked 36x above normal.
The Yes price jumped about 35 points, with the market up 40 points over the last day.
One participant is a high-volume cross-market bettor with a 69% win record and $782K in profit.

$14,295 on Yes

81% win-rate sharp

Proven sharp wallet with 81% win rate and $666k lifetime profit bought Yes on a liquid Colombian election market at 31¢.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $666k lifetime.
They have a large 1,205-bet track record, so the wallet’s history is the main signal.
Entry at 31¢ implies they see meaningful upside despite the market falling 9% today.

$2,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

81% political cross-market bettor

Surface because this is a high-volume political bettor with an 81% resolved win rate making a $5k cross-market position, though lifetime P&L is negative and many wins were short-priced.

This bettor has won 81% of 220 resolved markets, with nearly $2.85M traded lifetime.
They put $5k on No and have $10.9k positioned across two related Colombian election markets.
The bet is on a liquid political market at 88¢, suggesting a lower-upside but high-conviction fade of this candidate.

$5,044 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

81% winner hedging election

Surfaced because the bettor has a strong 81% record across 220 resolved markets and is making a cross-market Colombian election position, despite negative lifetime P&L and a modest signal score.

This bettor has won 81% of 220 resolved trades, making the wallet worth tracking despite mixed profits.
They are betting across related Colombian election markets, suggesting a broader view on the race.
Buying No at 86¢ is a lower-upside but high-confidence position against Espriella finishing first.

$1,597 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 24851842, $502,808
0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 24851842, $25,000 (41% win rate)
0x15fd...cc95 — Outcome 24851842, $16,352 (100% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 24851842, $7,800 (72% win rate)
0x6b67...1169 — Outcome 33232052, $5,360
0x709d...5501 — Outcome 24851842, $3,818
0xc0e8...9273 — Outcome 24851842, $3,507
0x519d...37a1 — Outcome 24851842, $3,000
0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 24851842, $2,734 (68% win rate)
0xa5e3...4d7e — Outcome 24851842, $2,454 (19% win rate)

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Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Resolved Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?$28,232 tracked6 signalsWorldElectionsGlobal ElectionsPoliticsColombia ElectionColombia

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).