Part of: NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $68,763.

Categories: Primaries, Politics, New York, Elections, primary elections, House Primary, New York Primary, Democratic Primary, June 23 Primaries

Notable Trades

Profitable serial political trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and nearly $3.9M profit is buying Yes on this NY-13 Democratic nominee market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
  • They are a major serial cross-market trader, with activity across 146 events and $5.7M in tracked volume.
  • Buying Yes at 66¢ suggests confidence despite the market already moving up 19 points over the past week.

$1,339 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable linked wallet backs Yes

A highly profitable 9-for-9 wallet in a linked 3-wallet cluster is effectively buying Yes on Espaillat at 64¢ amid strong upward price momentum.

  • This bettor is 9-for-9 on resolved bets and is up about $150K lifetime.
  • The trade is effectively a Yes buy at 64¢, below the current 66¢ market price.
  • A 3-wallet funded cluster is involved, and the market is already up 16 points this week.

$1,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet scaling into YES

A 4-day-old repeat large bettor is buying Yes on a political primary market that has already moved sharply upward.

  • This 4-day-old wallet has already made 3 flagged large bets totaling $6.9K.
  • They bought $3.3K of Yes at 64¢, and the market has since moved to 68¢.
  • The market is up 19 points today, matching the direction of this new wallet’s bet.

$4,904 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial political trader

Profitable high-volume political trader with linked-wallet corroboration is buying No on Espaillat after a meaningful move in the market.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 1,377 resolved bets, 58% wins, and about $1.18M in profit.
  • Two linked wallets from the same funder have put $3.6K into this NY-13 event.
  • Bought No at 40¢, and the position has already moved to about 44¢.

$1,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

New wallet scaling into YES

A 4-day-old repeat large bettor is buying Yes on a political primary market that has already moved sharply upward.

  • This 4-day-old wallet has already made 3 flagged large bets totaling $6.9K.
  • They bought $3.3K of Yes at 64¢, and the market has since moved to 68¢.
  • The market is up 19 points today, matching the direction of this new wallet’s bet.

$3,318 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Sharp $3.9M winner leads cluster

A highly profitable 80% winner led a $29.6k one-sided Yes cluster into a local political primary market, alongside a 73x volume spike and sharp price move.

  • The lead bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
  • Four wallets all backed Yes for $29.6k, with most of the money entering around 50–51¢.
  • Volume spiked 73x and the price has jumped 18 points in one day, suggesting strong momentum behind the move.

$29,579 on Yes

Profitable serial bettor leads cluster

Surface this: a highly profitable 80% winner with major cross-market history led a $26k one-sided Yes cluster amid a large volume spike and rising price.

  • The lead bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $3.86M lifetime.
  • Three wallets all backed Yes for $26k, with most of the money entering around 50–51¢.
  • Market volume spiked sharply and Yes has moved up 14 points this week.

$26,261 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 49259132, $54,297
  2. 0xff72...cdaa Outcome 32267317, $3,700 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xd24b...ef76 Outcome 32267317, $3,516 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x6291...cc47 Outcome 32267317, $2,748
  5. 0x1e1f...c855 Outcome 32267317, $2,419 (58% win rate)
  6. 0xbebe...72e1 Outcome 32267317, $2,400 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xc684...2228 Outcome 32267317, $2,123 (79% win rate)
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 32267317, $1,177
  9. 0x8f71...4e83 Outcome 32267317, $1,048 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xfb5a...8008 Outcome 32267317, $1,013

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Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

ResolvedNY-13 Democratic Primary Winner$68,763 tracked7 signalsPrimariesPoliticsNew YorkElectionsprimary electionsHouse PrimaryNew York PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryJune 23 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Price History — “Yes
74¢
59¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

8d ago

$1,339 on Yes at 66¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

9d ago

$1,384 on Yes at 64¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

10d ago

$4,904 on Yes at 64¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

11d ago

$1,979 on No at 40¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

11d ago

$3,318 on Yes at 64¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

11d ago

$29,579 on Yes at 52¢

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

11d ago

$26,261 on Yes at 51¢

Related Theses