Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,343.
Categories: World, Germany, Politics, Elections, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable wallets scaling into Yes
Three profitable, high-volume wallets added to existing Yes positions in coordination across four event markets, driving a 48-point price surge, though the current 99% price leaves little room to enter.
- Three experienced bettors with 53%–65% win rates and over $1.9 million in combined realized profit bought Yes together.
- The wallets added $13,604 while coordinating across four related election markets, helping drive Yes from roughly 50% to 99%.
- All three already held Yes, so this is increased conviction rather than a fresh position; the current 99¢ price offers very limited upside.
$13,604 on Yes
83% win-rate serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate placed a meaningful $4,738 bet on No at near-market price.
- This bettor wins 83% of 249 resolved trades and has made $1.29 million.
- The trader has participated across 108 markets and 81 events, indicating a well-established forecasting record.
- A $4,738 No position supports the view that AfD will fall outside the 42%-45% range.
$4,738 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $26,248
- 0x23d8...0288 — No, $6,694 (81% win rate)
- 0x944e...8c94 — No, $4,568 (69% win rate)
- 0x8f69...2923 — No, $534
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $475
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $277 (95% win rate)
- 0x5e55...9a76 — No, $249
- 0x07b9...0fbb — No, $200
- 0x2213...492c — No, $200
- 0xfd59...0231 — No, $153 (87% win rate)
Related Theses
Neither Chong nor Oh wins
Covers 2 related markets
Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency
Covers 2 related markets
McKinney will replace Thanedar
Covers 2 related markets
Cury takes third, not Caiado
Covers 2 related markets
Yashar wins most Israeli seats
Covers 2 related markets
Neither becomes Israel's next PM
Covers 2 related markets
Russian turnout will exceed 62%
Covers 4 related markets
Park or Kim wins Gyeongnam
Covers 2 related markets
Flávio Bolsonaro won’t finish second
Covers 1 related market
Choo wins Daegu mayoral race
Covers 2 related markets
