Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,343.
Categories: World, Germany, Politics, Elections, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable wallets scaling into Yes
Three profitable, high-volume wallets added to existing Yes positions in coordination across four event markets, driving a 48-point price surge, though the current 99% price leaves little room to enter.
- Three experienced bettors with 53%–65% win rates and over $1.9 million in combined realized profit bought Yes together.
- The wallets added $13,604 while coordinating across four related election markets, helping drive Yes from roughly 50% to 99%.
- All three already held Yes, so this is increased conviction rather than a fresh position; the current 99¢ price offers very limited upside.
$13,604 on Yes
83% win-rate serial trader buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate placed a meaningful $4,738 bet on No at near-market price.
- This bettor wins 83% of 249 resolved trades and has made $1.29 million.
- The trader has participated across 108 markets and 81 events, indicating a well-established forecasting record.
- A $4,738 No position supports the view that AfD will fall outside the 42%-45% range.
$4,738 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 62471096, $26,248
- 0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 62471096, $6,694 (82% win rate)
- 0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 62471096, $4,568 (67% win rate)
- 0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 24530715, $3,779 (76% win rate)
- 0x01da...ea89 — Outcome 24530715, $3,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x8948...f94e — Outcome 62471096, $2,889
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 62471096, $950
- 0x4dae...c996 — Outcome 62471096, $355
- 0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 62471096, $277 (94% win rate)
- 0x5e55...9a76 — Outcome 62471096, $249
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