Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $3.0 trillion on any eligible trading date by December 31, 2026. It resolves after the deadline, with final settlement expected January 1, 2027, and PolySpotter currently tracks $4,412 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including notable NO-side buying from an 86% winner.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,537.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$3,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
86% winner buying NO
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $175k profit bought No on a long-dated Anthropic $3T valuation market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $175k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 45 events, with the same 86% hit rate.
- Buying No at 84¢ suggests confidence Anthropic will not reach a $3T private valuation by end-2026.
$1,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$3,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable 79% winner
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 79% resolved-bet win rate bought No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $18K lifetime.
- Their $1.4K No buy was 78% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 81¢ backs the view that Anthropic will not reach a $3T private valuation by end-2026.
$1,419 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$2,420 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$2,394 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$1,921 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$1,348 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp bettor cross-market thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
- Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.
$1,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
11-wallet funded cluster
An 11-wallet shared-funder cluster is building a coordinated $12.6k Anthropic valuation thesis, including this Yes buy at 10¢.
- 11 linked wallets funded by the same source have put $12.6k into this Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This wallet has traded nearly 1,000 resolved markets and is up about $865k lifetime.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a long-shot bet with roughly 10x payout if Anthropic reaches the $3T valuation threshold.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Top Holders
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $44,948 (63% win rate)
- 0x7365...64da — Yes, $31,313 (54% win rate)
- 0x8a4c...532b — Yes, $18,095 (52% win rate)
- 0xa61e...0abd — No, $8,500 (37% win rate)
- 0x40a7...91c9 — Yes, $7,791
- 0x1543...baaf — Yes, $7,409 (36% win rate)
- 0x7f45...284b — Yes, $6,190
- 0xe7bd...ebce — No, $3,881 (94% win rate)
- 0x7a4d...546a — No, $3,651 (100% win rate)
- 0x8473...70ef — Yes, $2,693
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