Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,718.

Categories: Brazil, World, Politics, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Large holder adds after breakout

A $3,046 add to an existing Yes position coincided with a sharp breakout beyond the market’s prior price range, though the wallet’s track record is not especially strong.

The bettor added $3,046 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment in this outcome to about $10,500.
Yes surged beyond its prior 31–59% range and now trades at 87%, though this wallet’s 53% win rate is not a strong edge signal.

$3,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

81% winner re-enters at 31¢

A highly profitable bettor with an 81% win rate is making a fresh $2,376 Yes bet at 31¢ after previously closing a larger position.

This bettor has won 268 of 330 resolved trades and is up $1.57M.
They opened a fresh $2,376 Yes position at 31¢ after closing an earlier position at a higher average entry.
Their record includes activity across 100 events, and the market has moved up 10.5% over the past day.

$2,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A consistently profitable, highly active trader with 9,538 resolved bets is taking a fresh Yes-equivalent position, though the single trade is modest and the event is far from resolution.

This bettor is up $205,832 across 9,538 resolved bets, with a 65% win rate.
Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, a $1,173 position on Cury finishing third.
The trader has positioned across 220 events, but this alert includes only one trade in this market.

$1,542 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A consistently profitable, highly active trader with 9,538 resolved bets is taking a fresh Yes-equivalent position, though the single trade is modest and the event is far from resolution.

This bettor is up $205,832 across 9,538 resolved bets, with a 65% win rate.
Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, a $1,173 position on Cury finishing third.
The trader has positioned across 220 events, but this alert includes only one trade in this market.

$1,534 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A consistently profitable, highly active trader with 9,538 resolved bets is taking a fresh Yes-equivalent position, though the single trade is modest and the event is far from resolution.

This bettor is up $205,832 across 9,538 resolved bets, with a 65% win rate.
Selling No at 65¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢, a $1,173 position on Cury finishing third.
The trader has positioned across 220 events, but this alert includes only one trade in this market.

$1,173 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Proven serial bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is buying Yes at 46¢ in a presidential-election market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1.46 million lifetime.
The 91-event, 121-market track record shows repeated cross-market activity rather than a one-off wager.
Buying Yes at 46¢ implies the trader sees meaningful value despite the market currently pricing it near a coin flip.

$6,747 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Proven serial bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is buying Yes at 46¢ in a presidential-election market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1.46 million lifetime.
The 91-event, 121-market track record shows repeated cross-market activity rather than a one-off wager.
Buying Yes at 46¢ implies the trader sees meaningful value despite the market currently pricing it near a coin flip.

$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%