Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,946.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

98% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 98% record and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a moderate cross-market signal.

  • This bettor has won 47 of 48 resolved trades and is up $44,057 lifetime.
  • They have $7,096 positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Bought No at 85¢ while the market now sits near 82¢, giving a slightly better entry than the trader got.

$2,476 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%

Profitable new wallet backs NO

A young repeat-flagged wallet with a 7-for-7 resolved record and early profit is adding a $1.6k No position on a plausible news-driven AI policy market.

  • This 9-day-old wallet is 7-for-7 on resolved bets and up $478 so far.
  • It has now been flagged 3 times, with $4.2k total in notable bets across 7 positions.
  • The bet backs No at 82¢, suggesting confidence that access will not be restored by the deadline.

$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Proven winner in thin market

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong 78% win record across 346 resolved markets and is adding size in a thin market.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25.8K lifetime.
  • They bought $1.9K of Yes in a small market, equal to 78% of recent daily volume.
  • Entry at 62¢ has already moved to about 66¢, suggesting early confirmation of the bet.

$1,870 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 50722702, $34,833 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x3b44...264e Outcome 50722702, $6,725 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x626e...fa46 Outcome 50722702, $6,234
  4. 0x581c...d47d Outcome 50722702, $4,700
  5. 0x80c0...ed95 Outcome 50722702, $2,788
  6. 0x5999...ae94 Outcome 50722702, $2,506 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 50722702, $2,000 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xbb8e...b243 Outcome 50722702, $1,807 (69% win rate)
  9. 0xed4d...1a9d Outcome 50722702, $1,778
  10. 0x12c4...7e2d Outcome 64869377, $1,514

Related Theses

No Iran deal by June

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Iran deal in June

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Covers 2 related markets

Spain, France or Argentina wins

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Anthropic overtakes Google AI

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Claude debuts in low 1530s

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Covers 2 related markets

Sabrina attends, Max skips

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Hormuz transit remains severely disrupted

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Claude Fable 5 stays unavailable

Covers 2 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$5,946 tracked3 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
101¢
66¢
31¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

2d ago

$2,476 on No at 85¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

5d ago

$1,600 on No at 82¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

7d ago

$1,870 on Yes at 62¢

Related Theses