Part of: South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,721.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, Republican Primary, August 25 Primaries, South Carolina Primary

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced and profitable serial trader made a concentrated No bet representing nearly all recent market volume in a thin, wide-spread market.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 1,189 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million lifetime.
  • The $1,721 No purchase accounts for 93% of the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
  • The position was entered at 82¢ while No is now 86¢, despite a 5¢ bid-ask spread.

$1,721 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0xecaa...77a9 Outcome 10323709, $16,888 (73% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 10323709, $15,673
  3. 0x1cfc...2111 Outcome 10323709, $110
  4. 0x5533...51ba Outcome 10323709, $90
  5. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 10323709, $68
  6. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 10323709, $31
  7. 0x1a28...035b Outcome 10323709, $10
  8. 0xc989...aad8 Outcome 10323709, $6
  9. 0x6891...6bb9 Outcome 10323709, $5
  10. 0xa39f...fbdb Outcome 10323709, $5

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Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?

ResolvedSouth Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory$1,721 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsPrimariesRepublican PrimaryAugust 25 PrimariesSouth Carolina Primary

The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “Yes
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Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by less than 5%?

17d ago

$1,721 on No at 82¢

Related Theses